Market Overview

Census 2010: The Top Winners - And Losers

Census 2010: The Top Winners - And Losers

National Census Day is tomorrow, April 1st - and no, that's not a joke. The taking of the Census once every 10 years is a milestone event when it comes to federal funding, and determines who will gain - or lose - for the next 10 years. Why's that?

There are two principal things governed by population in the United States: representation in the U.S. House of Representatives, and federal funding. The former is obvious; a state gains a representative if the population increases by a particular amount. The latter, though, is often not so obvious, due to the methods by which the federal government approportions money. This means that a state can benefit in two big ways if its population increases.

Here are the top 5 communities that are projected to benefit from Census 2010:

1. Provo, Utah
Population growth 2000-2009: 47%

2. Raleigh, North Carolina
Population growth 2000-2009: 41%

3. Las Vegas, Nevada
Population growth 2000-2009: 38%

4. Austin, Texas
Population growth 2000-2009: 36%

5. Phoenix, Arizona
Population growth 2000-2009: 34%

The states predicted to increase their representation in the House (with the estimated increase in seats):

1. Texas (3-4)
2. Arizona (1)
3. Florida (1)
4. Georgia (1)
5. Nevada (1)

Here are the top 5 communities that are projected to lose from Census 2010:

1. New Orleans, Louisiana
Population loss 2000-2009: 10%

2. Youngstown, Ohio
Population loss 2000-2009: 7%

3. Buffalo, New York
Population loss 2000-2009: 4%

4. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Population loss 2000-2009: 3%

5. Cleveland, Ohio
Population loss 2000-2009: 3%

The states predicted to decrease their representation in the House (with the estimated decrease in seats):

1. Ohio (2)
2. Pennsylvania (1)
3. New York (1)
4. New Jersey (1)
5. Minnesota (1)

An analysis of the greater demographic trends over the past two decades suggests that political power (as evidenced by an increase in House seats and, accordingly, electoral votes) is continuing to move to the South and Southwest from the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio River Valley. The fastest-growing areas of the country tend to vote Democratic at the federal level, suggesting that the Democratic Party will benefit more from Census 2010 than Republicans.

As a side note, it is interesting to hear some politicians rail against the Census and encourage their constituents to refuse to fill it out and turn it in. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is one such politician - which is ironic, since if Minnesota loses a seat as it is predicted to do, then Bachmann will be out of a job.

Either way, the results of Census 2010 will be felt with the FY2011 budget at the earliest, and definitely with the 2012 elections.


Related Articles

View Comments and Join the Discussion!

Posted-In: Census Bureau Michele BachmannPolitics Topics General