Another Look At The 2Q GDP Figures

Nate Silver over at

offers an intriguing look at the GDP figures from last week that pointed to a sluggish growth rate of only 1.6% - revised downward from an expected 2.4% increase over the quarter. In examining the GDP and its constituent components, Silver determined that while three components - personal consumption expenditures, gross domestic investment, and government spending - rose by anywhere from 2% to 25%, a fourth component - exports net of imports - fell by 3.37%. In other words, more imports than usual over the last quarter pulled the GDP lower than it would've otherwise. Silver also points out that this balance of imports versus exports is higher than expected, and amounts to something akin to an anomaly. In short, he concludes that the outlook for the third quarter is not as dire as initially assumed by looking at these disappointing figures - which are perhaps indicative of a "statistical rarity" than a systemic collapse.