Federal Reserve https://www.benzinga.com/views/taxonomy/term/125743 en St. Louis Fed Chief Bullard Explains Objections To 0.25% Rate Cut https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14463990/st-louis-fed-chief-bullard-explains-objections-to-0-25-rate-cut <p>The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve">Federal Open Market Committee</a> decided Sept. 18 to lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, but Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CEO James Bullard said more should have been done.</p> <h3>What Happened</h3> <p>The Fed lowered its target range from 2% to 1.75%, but <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/september/bullard-explains-recent-fomc-dissent">Bullard wrote in a blog</a> a more &quot;appropriate action&quot; would be lowering the target range to 1.5%.</p> <p>The economist, who has held ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14463990/st-louis-fed-chief-bullard-explains-objections-to-0-25-rate-cut alt=St. Louis Fed Chief Bullard Explains Objections To 0.25% Rate Cut>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Inflation Interest Rates James Bullard News SPY St Louis Fed Federal Reserve Media SPY US78462F1030 News Federal Reserve Media Benzinga Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:01:01 +0000 Jayson Derrick 14463990 at https://www.benzinga.com Trade-Related Optimism Helps Boost Market Sentiment On Quadruple Witching Day https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14464669/trade-related-optimism-helps-boost-market-sentiment-on-quadruple-witching-day <p>Welcome to quadruple witching day. It happens every quarter on the day when futures and options on indices and stocks all expire on the same day.&nbsp;</p> <p>Maybe it&rsquo;s not as ominous as its name might suggest, but these remain days when investors might want to exercise special care as there could be some heightened volatility as people unwind baskets of stocks or futures.&nbsp;</p> <p>On Wall Street, investors this morning seem to be a bit upbeat, heartened by developments on the trade front and by yet another major economy cutting interest rates.</p> <p>China cut its one-year lending rate, joining the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in dovish steps designed to help stimulate economies by reducing borrowing costs. The moves come amid rising worries about global economic growth as the trade war between the United States and China drags on. (See more below.)</p> <p>On the trade front, China and the United States are scheduled today to conclude two-day negotiations that began yesterday, seemingly with the aim of paving the way for higher level discussions next month.&nbsp;</p> <p>The discussions come as there has been a bit of a thaw recently in the chilly trade relationship between the world&rsquo;s two largest economies. Among recent developments, the Trump administration has excluded hundreds of Chinese items from a 25% tariff.</p> <h3>Resistance Near Record Highs</h3> <p>We&rsquo;ve been talking for a while about how the U.S.-China trade war seems to be creating a cap that the stock market may not be able to meaningfully breach until the dispute between the world&rsquo;s two largest economies comes to some sort of definitive conclusion.</p> <p>That narrative seemed to be in play Thursday with stocks near all-time highs but losing momentum throughout the day. The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) closed above 3000 after making it above 3,020. But without a catalyst to push stocks into record territory, this area between 3000 and the all-time high of 3027.98 looks to be an area of resistance.</p> <p>True, the Fed didn&rsquo;t give market participants much to get really excited about this week when the central bank delivered an as-expected rate cut. But it seems like the unresolved trade issue could be the bigger weight here.</p> <p>While optimism around the two-day negotiations may have helped boost the market early ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14464669/trade-related-optimism-helps-boost-market-sentiment-on-quadruple-witching-day alt=Trade-Related Optimism Helps Boost Market Sentiment On Quadruple Witching Day>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> News Quadruple Witching TD Ameritrade US-China Trade War Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General News Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Fri, 20 Sep 2019 13:45:43 +0000 JJ Kinahan 14464669 at https://www.benzinga.com Friday's Market Minute: Quad Witching, Volatility, And The Fed https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14464532/fridays-market-minute-quad-witching-volatility-and-the-fed <p>After all the speculation, the Fed&rsquo;s second interest rate hike of 2019 has come and gone. The 25bps cut, expected by much of the market, resulted in a quick V-shaped sell-off and rebound. But traders hoping for lower rates to propel markets into new highs have so far been disappointed. Although S&amp;P 500 futures are tenaciously holding above the 3,000 price level, the contract has yet to take out the highs at 3,025.75 from last week &ndash; let alone the all-time high ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14464532/fridays-market-minute-quad-witching-volatility-and-the-fed alt=Friday&#039;s Market Minute: Quad Witching, Volatility, And The Fed>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Crude Oil News TD Ameritrade Global Federal Reserve Markets General News Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Fri, 20 Sep 2019 13:40:32 +0000 TD Ameritrade Network 14464532 at https://www.benzinga.com Large Morgan Stanley Option Traders Make Bullish Bets Following Fed Commentary https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/19/09/14460175/large-morgan-stanley-option-traders-make-bullish-bets-following-fed-commentary <p>Big bank stocks experienced mixed trading on Thursday morning following the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453271/fed-issues-second-rate-cut-of-2019">second rate cut of the year</a>. However, <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ms#NYSE">MS</a>) definitely had some large option traders&rsquo; attention following the Fed decision.</p> <h3>The Trades</h3> <p>On Thursday morning, <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com?afmc=55">Benzinga Pro</a> subscribers received two option alerts related to unusually large Morgan Stanley trades:</p> <p>At 9:33 a.m., a trader bought 1,901 Morgan Stanley call options with a $46 strike price expiring on Nov. 15 near the ask price at 97.1 cents. The trade represented a $184,987 bullish bet.</p> <p>Less than a minute later, likely the same trader bought another 7,331 Morgan Stanley of the same $46 Nov. 15 call options near the ask price at $1.011. The second trade represented a $741,164 bullish bet.</p> <p>Together, the two trades represented a $926,151 total bet that Morgan Stanley shares have at least ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/19/09/14460175/large-morgan-stanley-option-traders-make-bullish-bets-following-fed-commentary alt=Large Morgan Stanley Option Traders Make Bullish Bets Following Fed Commentary>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Long Ideas MS Options Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas MS US6174464486 Long Ideas Options Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas Benzinga Thu, 19 Sep 2019 17:14:57 +0000 Wayne Duggan 14460175 at https://www.benzinga.com Fed Follow-Up: Markets Don't Appear To Get Rate Cut Boost As Fed Doesn't Promise More https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14458490/fed-follow-up-markets-dont-appear-to-get-rate-cut-boost-as-fed-doesnt-promise-more <p>A widely-expected rate cut from a divided Fed doesn&rsquo;t seem like enough to give the market much of a lift, at least judging from weakness in futures early Thursday.</p> <p>After the Fed cut rates 25 basis points yesterday, focus now could turn back toward the stuff everyone was talking about before the Fed interruption. That means China trade, Brexit, and U.S. consumer health. On the China front, U.S. and Chinese negotiators are sitting down today to pave the way for next month&rsquo;s trade talks. In other news, the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged., and the Bank of Japan kept rates steady, too.</p> <p>The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has been trading roughly between 2800 and just above 3000 for a long time, and nothing the Fed said or did yesterday appears likely to change that. There would probably have to be some sort of significant news on the trade front one way or the other for stocks to bust out of that range.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Treasury yields are back-tracking a bit this week after the 10-year rose to 1.9% a week ago. They were down again early Thursday, with the 10-year now below 1.8%. That&rsquo;s still way above a month ago, but it does look like the yield rally is taking a pause. That could mean some caution creeping back in.</p> <p>There&rsquo;s data to watch this morning as existing home sales for August are due. Yesterday&rsquo;s building permits and housing starts data looked really solid, so maybe the low rates and consumer resilience is starting to show in a healthier housing market.</p> <h3>No &ldquo;Pre-Set Course&rdquo; For Future Rate Policy</h3> <p>The benchmark fed funds rate is now in the 1.75% to 2% range, back to where it was roughly a year ago. It feels like the Fed is pedaling madly to keep the long U.S. expansion going even as economies in Europe and Asia seem to be slipping into slow motion.</p> <p>It looks like rate policy will remain a &ldquo;meeting by meeting&rdquo; decision based on data and the risk picture, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his press conference, adding that there&rsquo;s no &ldquo;pre-set course.&rdquo;</p> <p>This might have disappointed bulls who&rsquo;d been hoping for more dovish words, but let&rsquo;s face it: Anyone who really thought Powell would change his tune and say something more dovish probably hasn&rsquo;t been following things too closely the last few months.</p> <p>Powell&rsquo;s press conference on Wednesday showed that the Fed chair remains relatively cautious, and that he&rsquo;d rather watch the data come in before hinting at next moves. Brexit and the China trade situation both could see new developments between now and the end of next month, when the Fed meets again. There&rsquo;s also the September U.S. jobs report and the start of another earnings season, along with the first official government estimate for U.S. Q3 gross domestic product (GDP). It seems only natural for a Fed chair to not box themselves in when so much is hanging overhead.</p> <p>Another thing to consider is that the Federal Open Market ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14458490/fed-follow-up-markets-dont-appear-to-get-rate-cut-boost-as-fed-doesnt-promise-more alt=Fed Follow-Up: Markets Don&#039;t Appear To Get Rate Cut Boost As Fed Doesn&#039;t Promise More>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Earnings fed cuts News TD Ameritrade Global Federal Reserve Markets General News Earnings Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Thu, 19 Sep 2019 13:50:47 +0000 JJ Kinahan 14458490 at https://www.benzinga.com Will US Interest Rates Ever Drop Below Zero? https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/09/14452555/will-us-interest-rates-ever-drop-below-zero <p>Negative-yielding sovereign debt levels now exceed $15 trillion, and negative-yielding corporate debt is now greater than $1 trillion around the world.</p> <p>With the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453271/fed-issues-second-rate-cut-of-2019">cutting interest rates for the second time this year</a>, investors are growing increasingly concerned that U.S. interest rates may drop below zero during the next market downturn.</p> <p>LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch recently said the mentality for fixed-income investors around the world has shifted from how to earn more income to how to avoid losing more principal.</p> <p>Several theories exist as to why negative yields have become so popular, Lynch said. Some experts suggest rates are being forced into negative territory due to a glut in global saving. Others say an aging global population is driving rates below zero. Still others blame a global shift toward instant gratification and a change in mentality away from long-term returns.</p> <p>At some point along the line, interest rate cuts in regions like Japan and Europe shifted from being a way to encourage investing over saving to a way to force savers to invest rather than risk losing money to negative rates.</p> <p>While the U.S. has avoided negative yields up to this point, U.S. Treasuries are paying near record-low yields despite a late-stage economic expansion.</p> <p>The U.S. economy is healthy enough to support much higher yields, Lynch said. Yet ultra-low and negative ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/09/14452555/will-us-interest-rates-ever-drop-below-zero alt=Will US Interest Rates Ever Drop Below Zero?>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Allianz Analyst Color DJIA Joe Brusuelas John Lynch. Alan Greenspan LPL Financial Mohamed El-Erian RSM US LLP SPX SPY Futures Top Stories Economics Federal Reserve Exclusives Markets Analyst Ratings SPY US78462F1030 DJIA SPX Analyst Color Futures Top Stories Economics Federal Reserve Exclusives Markets Analyst Ratings Benzinga Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:50:24 +0000 Wayne Duggan 14452555 at https://www.benzinga.com How Negative Interest Rates Could Affect You https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14454014/how-negative-interest-rates-could-affect-you <p>Learn how negative interest rates could affect your strategy and investments. The United States has never used negative interest rates, though that may change. In September of 2019, President Trump suggested the Federal Reserve implement them. Negative interest rates ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14454014/how-negative-interest-rates-could-affect-you alt=How Negative Interest Rates Could Affect You>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Housing Interest Rates News TD Ameritrade Federal Reserve Markets General News Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:03:06 +0000 TD Ameritrade 14454014 at https://www.benzinga.com Another Slice: Fed Cuts Rates Again, But Stays Cloudy On Next Steps, Disappointing Market https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453851/another-slice-fed-cuts-rates-again-but-stays-cloudy-on-next-steps-disappointing-market <p>The Fed&rsquo;s not in the business of delivering surprises. That&rsquo;s why today&rsquo;s 25-basis point rate cut&mdash;the second in less than two months after 10 years without one&mdash;probably came as most investors expected.</p> <p>The benchmark fed funds rate is now in the 1.75% to 2% range, back to where it was roughly a year ago, as the Fed pedals furiously to keep the long U.S. expansion going even as economies in Europe and Asia seem to be slipping into slow motion.&nbsp;</p> <p>The real question is what comes next, and that&rsquo;s why people are taking a close look at the Fed&rsquo;s latest statement and &ldquo;<a href="https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/market-news/what-is-the-fed-dot-plot-17550">dot plot</a>&rdquo; to get a sense of whether this is the last cut of the year or if there&rsquo;s a chance of another. It may be an actual surprise to hear that the Fed itself doesn&rsquo;t agree on this. With that in mind, it looks like rate policy will remain a &ldquo;meeting by meeting&rdquo; decision based on data and the risk picture, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his press conference.&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re not on a pre-set course,&rdquo; said Powell, admitting that this is a &ldquo;challenging&rdquo; time</p> <p>Lack of a definitive promise for more rate cuts appears to have put stocks under pressure late in today&rsquo;s session. The dot plot shows five members thinking the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should have held its previous range of 2% to 2.25%, five approve of the 25 basis point cut but want to keep rates there through the rest of the year, and seven favor at least one more cut this year, CNBC noted.</p> <p>There&rsquo;s really no easy landing spot, and it&rsquo;s more difficult because there&rsquo;s also a bit of a conundrum in the U.S. economy now. &ldquo;Household spending has been rising at a strong pace,&rdquo; the Fed said in its statement today, but &ldquo;business fixed investment and exports have weakened.&rdquo;</p> <p>This could be a way of alluding to the trade situation, where tariffs are apparently starting to have an impact on company investment due to uncertainty about how they&rsquo;ll ultimately play out. Consumers have been keeping things going at home, as the Fed noted by putting stronger language around the spending dynamic this time around, but some analysts believe it&rsquo;s unclear if this can last beyond the holidays if there&rsquo;s no definitive outcome on trade.</p> <h3>Powell Notes Weakness Abroad</h3> <p>In his remarks after the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted &ldquo;weakness abroad,&rdquo; low U.S. inflation, and U.S. business uncertainty in the light of the trade situation. The Fed, he said, has dialed down its ideas of where &ldquo;appropriate&rdquo; rate policy should be, and has adjusted to take this into account.</p> <p>&ldquo;Global growth has weakened&hellip;and political risks like Brexit remain unresolved,&rdquo; Powell said at his press conference. &ldquo;Uncertainty about trade policy has discouraged (companies) from investing in their businesses.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p> <p>Powell said the FOMC still expects U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth to remain &ldquo;moderate&rdquo; at near 2% this year and next, and unemployment to stay below 4%. However, he noted that inflation expectations remain at the low end and inflation hasn&rsquo;t reached the Fed&rsquo;s 2% goal. He expects the 2% goal to be reached, but in the meantime, &ldquo;continued below-target inflation could lead to an unwelcome slide in expectations.&rdquo;</p> <p>Deflation can be a self-reinforcing psychology, encouraging people to wait before making purchases on hopes prices will fall. That&rsquo;s the kind of deflationary spiral the Fed hopes to avoid.</p> <p>Powell says the labor market remains strong, with wages rising &ldquo;particularly for lower wage jobs,&rdquo; which is allowing more people to participate in the job market.</p> <p>However, &ldquo;Global growth continues to weaken,&rdquo; even since the Fed&rsquo;s last meeting, a risk that the Fed sees as more heightened now, Powell said.&nbsp;</p> <h3>Growing Dissent on FOMC Could Make Next Meetings Tougher</h3> <p>It&rsquo;s also interesting to see a growing dichotomy among Fed voters, with three of them dissenting this ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453851/another-slice-fed-cuts-rates-again-but-stays-cloudy-on-next-steps-disappointing-market alt=Another Slice: Fed Cuts Rates Again, But Stays Cloudy On Next Steps, Disappointing Market>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Crude Oil fed cuts GM News TD Ameritrade usd Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General GM US37045V1008 News Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 19:35:47 +0000 JJ Kinahan 14453851 at https://www.benzinga.com Fed Issues Second Rate Cut Of 2019 https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453271/fed-issues-second-rate-cut-of-2019 <p>In a move that was widely expected, the Federal Reserve issued its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/07/14172533/federal-reserve-issues-first-rate-cut-in-11-years">second 0.25% interest rate of 2019</a> on Wednesday. Despite the cut, the Fed reassured investors that the U.S. economy is strong and the labor market remains solid.</p> <p>&ldquo;This action supports the Committee&#39;s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee&#39;s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain,&rdquo; the Fed said in a statement.</p> <p>The rate cut comes after the New York Fed injected $53 billion in capital into the U.S. financial system Tuesday by buying U.S. Treasuries and other securities. The so-called &ldquo;overnight repo operation&rdquo; came in response to interest ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14453271/fed-issues-second-rate-cut-of-2019 alt=Fed Issues Second Rate Cut Of 2019>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> DJIA News SPY Bonds Econ #s Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets SPY US78462F1030 DJIA News Bonds Econ #s Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 18:15:45 +0000 Wayne Duggan 14453271 at https://www.benzinga.com Decision Time: Breaking Down What To Expect From The Fed https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14453042/decision-time-breaking-down-what-to-expect-from-the-fed <p>Petra Bakosova, Chief Operating Officer, Hull Tactical, dives into expectations ahead of the Fed announcement at 2 pm ET. She says that although it might seem like the markets are overvalued, she&rsquo;s seeing ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14453042/decision-time-breaking-down-what-to-expect-from-the-fed alt=Decision Time: Breaking Down What To Expect From The Fed>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Earnings News TD Ameritrade Federal Reserve Markets General News Earnings Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 17:39:31 +0000 TD Ameritrade Network 14453042 at https://www.benzinga.com NY Fed Props Up Overnight Lending For First Time Since 2008 https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/09/14451474/ny-fed-props-up-overnight-lending-for-first-time-since-2008 <p>For the first time since 2008, the New York Federal Reserve was forced to inject capital into the U.S. financial system to stave off a spike in overnight lending rates&nbsp;Tuesday.</p> <h3>What Happened</h3> <p>The New York Fed injected $53 billion in capital into the U.S. financial system Tuesday by buying U.S. Treasuries and other securities. The so-called &ldquo;overnight repo operation&rdquo; came in response to interest rates on overnight repurchase agreements spiking as high as 5% on Monday, more than double the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s target range of between 2% and 2.25%.</p> <h3>Why It&rsquo;s Important</h3> <p>The overnight lending market is important to the stability of global financial markets because it ensures liquidity in lending markets. When overnight lending ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/09/14451474/ny-fed-props-up-overnight-lending-for-first-time-since-2008 alt=NY Fed Props Up Overnight Lending For First Time Since 2008>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Analyst Color Bank of America Merrill Lynch Government Hans Mikkelsen News SPY Federal Reserve Analyst Ratings SPY US78462F1030 News Analyst Color Government Federal Reserve Analyst Ratings Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:00:47 +0000 Wayne Duggan 14451474 at https://www.benzinga.com Fed And FedEx: Rate Decision Looms As Tariff Repercussions Seen In FDX Q1 https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14451043/fed-and-fedex-rate-decision-looms-as-tariff-repercussions-seen-in-fdx-q1 <p>Sometimes you can pretty much trust the numbers, but other times it&rsquo;s not such an easy call.&nbsp;</p> <p>Looking at the Fed funds futures market and judging from the numbers there, you might conclude that chances of a Fed rate cut today fell a lot from a few weeks ago. Futures recently predicted slightly less than a 60% chance of the Fed easing.</p> <p>Closer up, however, it appears that the drop from around 90% just a week or two back might be caused by some rate contracts expiring and some new ones hitting the market. In other words, it looks like a temporary blip that might ultimately not mean much when it comes to rate cut probabilities.&nbsp;</p> <p>That&rsquo;s a long way of saying that chances for a rate cut today actually look to be pretty high, and maybe even extremely high. The numbers can be confusing; there&rsquo;s no two ways about it. It&rsquo;s just one of those times. It doesn&rsquo;t look like the markets got thrown off too much, judging from how stocks didn&rsquo;t really seem to react to that percentage drop yesterday and managed slight gains. Futures point toward a lower open today after a weak earnings report with trade implications from <strong>FedEx Corporation&nbsp;</strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fdx#NYSE">FDX</a>) (see more below), but with the Fed meeting later, volume could be thin with limited price moves.</p> <p>The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET. If it lowers the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, as most analysts expect, it&rsquo;s unlikely that alone would move markets too much. If that&rsquo;s the case, watch instead for new &ldquo;dot plot&rdquo; where members chart expectations. That&rsquo;s probably the best way to get a sense of just how likely any future rate cuts might be and when they might come. Just consider keeping in mind that many analysts don&rsquo;t expect the median dot to move down much from where it was last time out, meaning the dot plot might be unlikely to show rising chances for more rate cuts this year.</p> <p>Also, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell steps to the podium about half an hour after the decision, and his comments have been known to stir things up on Wall Street. Last time out, at the July meeting, he helped spark selling when he seemed to characterize the rate cut that month as a one-and-done type of deal. It wouldn&rsquo;t be all that surprising to hear similar language this time from Powell, and for him to sound vague about future plans.</p> <p>One big question is what comes next on rates. Investors have been rolling back futures market odds of a follow-up cut next month, but some analysts still expect one at some point this year. Maybe Powell and company can shed more light, but the way things are shaping up, it doesn&rsquo;t appear we can expect too much.&nbsp;</p> <p>But another question mark going into this afternoon&rsquo;s press conference may be the Fed&rsquo;s future plans for its balance sheet (see more below). Recall that the central bank recently wrapped up a balance sheet reduction program, and already there have been calls for a fresh round of expansion.</p> <h3>FedEx, Tariffs and the Consumer</h3> <p>It was a tough night for FDX Tuesday. The company&mdash;sometimes seen as a barometer for consumer health&mdash;missed third-party consensus on both top- ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14451043/fed-and-fedex-rate-decision-looms-as-tariff-repercussions-seen-in-fdx-q1 alt=Fed And FedEx: Rate Decision Looms As Tariff Repercussions Seen In FDX Q1>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Consumer Discretionary Earnings FDX FedEx Corporation HD Home Improvement Retail KBH LOW News tariffs TD Ameritrade TOL US-China Trade War Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets Tech General FDX US31428X1063 HD US4370761029 KBH US48666K1097 LOW US5486611073 TOL US8894781033 News Earnings Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets Tech General Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 13:50:37 +0000 JJ Kinahan 14451043 at https://www.benzinga.com Wednesday's Market Minute: If Powell, Then... https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14450948/wednesdays-market-minute-if-powell-then <p>The consensus in markets right now is that Jerome Powell is forced to make a 25-basis-point cut despite a string of very good U.S. economic data. With the cut will come dissenters and hawkish language; despite the existential issues with a market that is dependent on the Fed, this remains Powell&#39;s least risky option and thus the consensus view. That said, from a strictly economic perspective, it wouldn&#39;t be unreasonable for Powell to hold off on cuts and try to talk the market off the ledge. Powell&rsquo;s history and his interest in keeping the Fed&rsquo;s independence both from markets and politics suggests this is not as unlikely as most think, but it is still unlikely. The third alternative, that Powell goes ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14450948/wednesdays-market-minute-if-powell-then alt=Wednesday&#039;s Market Minute: If Powell, Then...>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Jerome Powell News TD Ameritrade Global Federal Reserve Markets General News Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Wed, 18 Sep 2019 13:37:52 +0000 TD Ameritrade Network 14450948 at https://www.benzinga.com PreMarket Prep Roundup: All Quiet On The Fed Front https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14445957/premarket-prep-roundup-all-quiet-on-the-fed-front <p>After a month of extended volatility in August, September started with a bang right back to near all-time highs &mdash; and that was it. The reason for the pause in the action over the last few sessions was covered at the top of Tuesday&#39;s <a href="http://premarket.benzinga.com/pre-market-show/">PreMarket Prep</a> show.&nbsp;</p> <p>The question on investor&#39;s minds: what will the Federal Reserve&nbsp;do with rates on Wednesday?</p> <h3>Odds Of Rate Cut Falling&nbsp;</h3> <p>It was a slam-dunk one week ago for a quarter-point drop, but that&#39;s no longer the case: the odds have fallen from 89% to 68%, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, which is based on Fed Funds futures.&nbsp;</p> <p>The uncertainty of the Fed&#39;s next move&nbsp;has instilled caution in investors.</p> <p>Investors were alerted that in order for the rally in crude oil to continue, the contract must take out the high from yesterday ($63.38) or just revisit Monday&#39;s close of $62.90. Rumors of when production will be resumed dominated price ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/09/14445957/premarket-prep-roundup-all-quiet-on-the-fed-front alt=PreMarket Prep Roundup: All Quiet On The Fed Front>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> KHC News Oil PreMarket Prep SHOP Futures Offerings Federal Reserve Markets Media SHOP KHC News Futures Offerings Federal Reserve Markets Media Benzinga Tue, 17 Sep 2019 19:55:28 +0000 Joel Elconin 14445957 at https://www.benzinga.com Holding Pattern: Fed Meeting Coincides With Sizzling Geopolitics, FedEx Earnings https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14443496/holding-pattern-fed-meeting-coincides-with-sizzling-geopolitics-fedex-earnings <p>Things sometimes get sluggish on Wall Street when the Fed meets. Maybe not this time around as the Fed gathers today with geopolitical tensions still front and center. Where will we go next remains the question, with a lot of uncertainty in the air.</p> <p>Markets held up amazingly well Monday in light of everything, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell for the first time in nine sessions. Stocks could enter a holding pattern for a bit here as people assess what&rsquo;s going to happen next in the Gulf and wait for the Fed&rsquo;s decision on rates tomorrow afternoon. Volatility hasn&rsquo;t really moved much since late yesterday, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) just below 15.</p> <p>Crude slipped a little early Tuesday, but don&rsquo;t count out the chance of it potentially going even higher as more risk premium gets built in after yesterday&rsquo;s incredible 15% rally. More on crude below.</p> <p>It was a mixed picture overseas Tuesday. Stocks plunged in China, where traders appeared to be reacting to disappointing economic data, but overnight action was pretty uneventful in other parts of the world. Everyone seems to be on edge waiting for the next shoe to drop, and the Fed meeting just adds to the intrigue.</p> <p>A little earnings news could provide a welcome break today as both <strong>FedEx Corporation&nbsp;</strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fdx#NYSE">FDX</a>) and <strong>Adobe Inc.&nbsp;</strong>(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/adbe#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) report. We&rsquo;ll talk more about FDX below.</p> <p>Before getting to the Fed and crude, there was an interesting note from Deutsche Bank this morning that said the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) should be 13% lower because a recession is coming. So that&rsquo;s something to keep in the back of your mind. It&rsquo;s nothing definite, but it was an interesting little note.</p> <h3>Uncertainty Overseas and at FOMC</h3> <p>As uncertainty mounted in the Persian Gulf, it also climbed on the home front. For the first time, we&rsquo;re seeing questions about whether the Fed will lower rates. Probabilities in the futures market have come down a bit, though it still seems likely the Fed will cut.</p> <p>By early Tuesday, CME futures pegged chances of a 25-basis point rate cut at around 66%, down from 90% just a week or two ago. That&rsquo;s a 34% chance of no cut. If the Fed doesn&rsquo;t cut rates, that could potentially be a second blow this week for the stock market.</p> <p>Rate cut probabilities could be falling in part because of how strong the market has been over the past few weeks. If the Fed doesn&rsquo;t cut rates, we could see a sell-off, but if that happens it probably would just take us lower in the long-term range of between 2800 and 3000 in the SPX. We&rsquo;ve been trading in the higher part of that range lately, so maybe lack of a cut would mean trading lower in the range.</p> <p>Besides the rate decision, the Fed is scheduled to give investors its outlook for future rates with a new &ldquo;dot plot&rdquo; where members chart expectations. That&rsquo;s probably the best way to get a sense of just how likely any future rate cuts might be and when they might come.</p> <p>Slowing global economies, the trade war, and negative rates overseas all drove expectations for a rate cut this week. There&rsquo;s still a high chance of that, but you can&rsquo;t write off this uncertainty creeping in. A lot of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have said they&rsquo;re against cutting rates, so maybe that&rsquo;s getting worked into the market as the decision approaches.</p> <p>The FOMC members who&rsquo;ve spoken against rate cuts argue the economy isn&rsquo;t sluggish enough to need more monetary stimulus. Some also say that the problem isn&rsquo;t rates, but instead corporate uncertainty around tariffs that&rsquo;s eating into business investment. The Fed can&rsquo;t necessarily fix that.</p> <p>The Fed also can&rsquo;t do much about the situation in the Middle East and its ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/09/14443496/holding-pattern-fed-meeting-coincides-with-sizzling-geopolitics-fedex-earnings alt=Holding Pattern: Fed Meeting Coincides With Sizzling Geopolitics, FedEx Earnings>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAL AAPL ADBE Earnings FDX FedEx Corporation GM GS LMT News RTN TD Ameritrade Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General AAPL US0378331005 ADBE US00724F1012 FDX US31428X1063 GM US37045V1008 GS US38141G1040 LMT US5398301094 RTN US7551115071 AAL News Earnings Eurozone Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Tue, 17 Sep 2019 13:51:14 +0000 JJ Kinahan 14443496 at https://www.benzinga.com