Federal Reserve https://www.benzinga.com/views/taxonomy/term/125743 en Gold's Story Isn't Over Yet https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/18/09/12343239/golds-story-isnt-over-yet <p>After a brief bounce mid-way through August, the Street&rsquo;s enthusiasm for gold has waned. Seemingly, so has the market&rsquo;s fear of what impact tariffs on an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-fresh-tariffs-2018-9" style="text-decoration:none">additional $200 billion</a> in Chinese goods might mean for the U.S. and global currency market.</p> <p>While such trade escalations between the two biggest economies in the world might have once sent the <a href="https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/futures-markets/metals/?cid=70144000001EuMz" style="text-decoration:none">precious metals market</a> into overdrive, gold is contending with a dollar index up more than 6 percent in as many months. While gold investors have kept the commodity at the $1200 level it set late in August, the USD has just been a more appealing value sponge in the midst of an otherwise dismal currency market.</p> <p>This comparison has been something that gold has had to contend with all year. Before it hit its current price range after dipping and rallying ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/18/09/12343239/golds-story-isnt-over-yet alt=Gold&#039;s Story Isn&#039;t Over Yet>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Donald Trump Tariffs Gold Gold future precious metals Trade Wars USDX Futures Commodities Topics Econ #s Economics Federal Reserve Markets General Futures Commodities Topics Econ #s Economics Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Tue, 18 Sep 2018 15:58:33 +0000 Chris Dier-Scalise 12343239 at https://www.benzinga.com Trade Winds Keep Blowing, Potentially Putting A Barrier On Rally Chances https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12363310/trade-winds-keep-blowing-potentially-putting-a-barrier-on-rally-chances <p>Iced or hot? Foam or no-foam? Anyone who&rsquo;s ever had trouble making up their minds can probably empathize with the markets right now.</p> <p>On the one hand, some investors look ready to embrace more risk, but at the same time many remain a bit cautious amid the same old trade-related concerns. That caution appeared to rear its head again Friday on renewed worries about the chance of additional U.S. tariffs against China.</p> <p>The overall atmosphere is still headline-driven and can vary by the day, so investors probably shouldn&rsquo;t make trades based on the latest trade winds. The threat of new tariffs still sits like a troll beneath the market&rsquo;s bridge. At the same time, some of the clouds seemed to lift a little last week and might have injected some power into stocks of multinational companies that depend on export markets. This push-pull kind of action might leak into the days ahead as data and earnings are a bit scarce.</p> <h3>Rising Yields Might Hint At Risk Embrace</h3> <p>Before trade fears rekindled, the 10-year Treasury note yield flirted again with 3 percent on Friday. It was the first real attempt at that psychological level in more than a month, but whether it can hold on is the real question. Several moves above 3 percent earlier this year fizzled out, and the yield has been stuck in a tight range between 2.8 and 3 percent for a few months. Any longer-term move above 3 percent&mdash;say, one that lasts more than a day or two&mdash;might indicate that some investors are starting to respond to strong U.S. economic growth and rising wages by taking some money out of cautionary investments like Treasuries.</p> <p>The rising yields also probably reflect expectations for the Fed to take further action on rates when it meets later this month. Chances of a 25-basis point hike are baked in, with the futures market pegging it at 97 percent. Investors seem a little less sure about the Fed&rsquo;s next step after that, but only a little. There&rsquo;s now a better than 80 percent chance of a fourth rate hike by year-end, CME futures indicate.</p> <h3>Beaten Down and Bouncing Back</h3> <p>From a stock standpoint, the &ldquo;risk-on&rdquo; sentiment could be evident in shares of stocks like <strong>Netflix, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nflx#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>), which got hammered over the summer as investors reacted to disappointing earnings, but now clawed back about 16 percent from its lows a month ago. You can also see the positive feelings in shares of<strong> Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), which jumped last week after its new product launch event had many investors feeling more positive about the company&rsquo;s product position heading into the holidays.</p> <p>By the middle of last ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12363310/trade-winds-keep-blowing-potentially-putting-a-barrier-on-rally-chances alt=Trade Winds Keep Blowing, Potentially Putting A Barrier On Rally Chances>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL News NFLX ORCL TD Ameritrade Bonds Treasuries Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 NFLX US64110L1061 ORCL US68389X1054 News Bonds Treasuries Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:02:58 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12363310 at https://www.benzinga.com Fed Governor Lael Brainard Talks Trade, Tax Cuts, Mortgage Rates At Detroit Economic Club https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12345309/fed-governor-lael-brainard-talks-trade-tax-cuts-mortgage-rates-at-detroit-econom <p>While <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/18/09/12323335/trump-267b-more-in-chinese-tariffs-ready-to-go">trade disputes&nbsp;</a>are a source of uncertainty, they&#39;re not yet making a substantial dent in economic figures, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Wednesday.&nbsp;</p> <p>The nugget came in remarks Brainard made to the Detroit Economic Club that touched on the Fed&#39;s benchmarks for the economy, tax cuts, the unemployment rate and the housing sector.&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;The common theme is that for some particular sectors, we&rsquo;re seeing impacts of measures. But we&rsquo;re really not seeing a discernable [trade] impact in the aggregate numbers overall.&quot;&nbsp;</p> <h3>Financial Conditions &#39;Remain Quite Accommodating&#39;&nbsp;</h3> <p>The neutral rate of interest remains an important economic indicator, Brainard said in the speech at Detroit&#39;s Masonic Temple.</p> <p>&ldquo;When we see legislation that increases the budget deficit, like tax cuts and spending, tailwinds can be generated that are expected to push up the short-run neutral rating,&rdquo; Brainard said. &ldquo;When investors have an appetite ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12345309/fed-governor-lael-brainard-talks-trade-tax-cuts-mortgage-rates-at-detroit-econom alt=Fed Governor Lael Brainard Talks Trade, Tax Cuts, Mortgage Rates At Detroit Economic Club>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Detroit Economic Club Federal Reserve. tax cuts Lael Brainard News President Donald Trump Unemployment Econ #s Federal Reserve News Econ #s Federal Reserve Benzinga Wed, 12 Sep 2018 21:04:47 +0000 Hannah Genig 12345309 at https://www.benzinga.com Market Appears To Be in Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of Apple, Central Bank Events https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12343032/market-appears-to-be-in-wait-and-see-mode-ahead-of-apple-central-bank-events <p>Anticipation appears to be the sentiment this morning as investors seem to look toward Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) event later today when the tech behemoth is widely expected to unveil new products.&nbsp;</p> <p>There is also central bank commentary expected domestically and abroad this week. Today, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book. The Bank of England is scheduled for an interest rate announcement tomorrow, and the European Central Bank will hold a press conference after the conclusion of its own monetary policy meeting tomorrow.&nbsp;</p> <p>This morning, investors got the latest government reading on U.S. wholesale prices, with the producer price index showing a drop of 0.1 percnet. Expectations were for a rise of 0.2 percnet, according to a consensus of economists provided by Briefing.com, but U.S. equity futures didn&rsquo;t appear to immediately react much to the unexpected drop. A reading on consumer prices is scheduled for release tomorrow.</p> <h3>Yesterday&rsquo;s Market</h3> <p>U.S. equities shook off a bit of a rough start Tuesday to end solidly higher as Apple and other so-called FAANG stocks rallied and a surge in crude oil appeared to lift energy shares. Of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, telecommunication was the biggest gainer percentage wise, followed by energy and information technology.</p> <p>Each of the three major U.S. indices started the day off in the red, arguably an indicator that lingering trade tensions are still weighing on investors&rsquo; minds.&nbsp;President Trump has threatened a further $267 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, in addition to the potential $200 billion worth of duties the market has been worried about for some time. Meanwhile, China reportedly plans to ask the World Trade Organization for authorization to impose sanctions on the United States in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties that has simmered since 2013.</p> <p>However, gains in FAANG and energy companies appeared to outweigh trade concerns.</p> <h3>Apple Leads FAANG Higher</h3> <p>Apple shares bounced ahead of a widely anticipated event that, according ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12343032/market-appears-to-be-in-wait-and-see-mode-ahead-of-apple-central-bank-events alt=Market Appears To Be in Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of Apple, Central Bank Events>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMZN Apple Event BAC Consumer Discretionary CSCO FB GOOG GOOGL HD Home Improvement Retail Hurricane Florence LOW News NFLX PFE QCOM TD Ameritrade TSLA URI WFC Events Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Tech AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 CSCO US17275R1023 GOOG US38259P7069 NFLX US64110L1061 QCOM US7475251036 BAC US0605051046 HD US4370761029 LOW US5486611073 PFE US7170811035 URI US9113631090 WFC US9497461015 TSLA US88160R1014 FB GOOGL US38259P5089 News Events Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Tech Benzinga Wed, 12 Sep 2018 14:27:27 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12343032 at https://www.benzinga.com US Inflation Preview: Expect A Straightforward USD Reaction, Fed May Find Its Limits https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12342478/us-inflation-preview-expect-a-straightforward-usd-reaction-fed-may-find-its-limi <ul> <li><strong>US core inflation is expected to remain unchanged in August.</strong></li> <li><strong>Markets are looking beyond the September hike and into the future.</strong></li> <li><strong>It could serve as a significant market mover for the US Dollar.</strong></li> </ul> <p>The US publishes the Consumer Price Index report on Thursday, September 13th, at 12:30 GMT. With Trump&#39;s trade tariffs, issues with Emerging Markets, and Brexit, it is easy to brush off the fundamentals of foreign exchange. Markets move on interest rates, especially the American ones. And the <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed">Federal Reserve</a> has two mandates: employment and inflation.&nbsp;</p> <p>The most important figure is Core CPI, the measure that excludes energy and food. The Fed targets the Core PCE, another gauge that uses a slightly different methodology and is published late in the month.,Nevertheless, Core CPI and the Core PCE are highly correlated, and the earlier Core CPI release has a more significant impact.</p> <h2>Expectations and potential reactions</h2> <p>Core CPI hit a cycle high of 2.4 percent YoY in July, beating expectations. A repeat of the same figure is now forecast. The response will likely be straightforward: a better than expected number would imply inflation is heating up and the Fed will have to react with more rate hikes. Therefore, ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12342478/us-inflation-preview-expect-a-straightforward-usd-reaction-fed-may-find-its-limi alt=US Inflation Preview: Expect A Straightforward USD Reaction, Fed May Find Its Limits>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> FXStreet News Forex Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets News Forex Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Wed, 12 Sep 2018 13:31:57 +0000 Yohay Elam 12342478 at https://www.benzinga.com US-China Trade Tensions Appear To Weigh On Wall Street As Downbeat September Continues https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12336520/us-china-trade-tensions-appear-to-weigh-on-wall-street-as-downbeat-september-con <p>September is living up to its reputation as not the greatest month for stocks. After a string of losses last week, U.S. equities had a bit of a firmer start to the week, but based on stock futures this morning it doesn&rsquo;t look like a sustained bounce is in order &mdash; at least not to start off Tuesday&rsquo;s trading.&nbsp;</p> <p>President Trump&rsquo;s threat of a further $267 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, in addition to the potential $200 billion worth of duties the market has been fretting about for some time, appears to be weighing on investors&rsquo; minds.</p> <p>In other news on the U.S.-China trade front, Reuters reported that China plans to ask the World Trade Organization for the go-ahead to impose sanctions on the United States in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties that has simmered since 2013.</p> <p>The downbeat tone to U.S. equity futures came after European and Asian indices were mostly lower. Hong Kong&rsquo;s Hang Seng Index has entered a bear market, as defined by a 20 percent pull back from its closing high in January.</p> <h3>Tech, AAPL and China Tariffs</h3> <p>The market started off the week on a slightly better foot, but Monday wasn&rsquo;t a spectacular day. U.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) snapping losing streaks but still gaining only a bit. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended slightly lower.</p> <p>Looking at the S&amp;P 500 sectors, nothing in particular stood out head and shoulders above all the others. However, investors watching the tech sector after last week&rsquo;s stumble may have been encouraged by its positive performance Monday.&nbsp;&nbsp;The sector is widely held among investors, and some tech companies have huge market capitalizations. Those factors can often put tech shares in the driver&rsquo;s seat when it comes to overall market moves.</p> <p>Despite the sector&rsquo;s positive performance as a whole, <strong>Apple Inc. </strong>(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) shares closed more than 1.3 percent ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12336520/us-china-trade-tensions-appear-to-weigh-on-wall-street-as-downbeat-september-con alt=US-China Trade Tensions Appear To Weigh On Wall Street As Downbeat September Continues>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMD AMZN F FB News T TD Ameritrade Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 AMD US0079031078 F US3453708600 T US00206R1023 FB News Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Tue, 11 Sep 2018 14:52:11 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12336520 at https://www.benzinga.com Trade And Tech: Same Issues Still Could Be Center Stage As New Week Begins https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12328837/trade-and-tech-same-issues-still-could-be-center-stage-as-new-week-begins <p>The kids are in school and Labor Day is just a memory, putting the markets back into full focus. The week ahead looks jam packed with inflation data, meetings, potential trade developments, and an <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) product event, so consider pouring a cup of strong coffee and preparing for the deluge.</p> <p>Stocks enter the week a bit on the defensive after trade fears and a tech sector wash-out put many names in the red over the last few sessions. Despite recent losses, however, U.S. indices aren&rsquo;t far off their all-time highs, and interest rates remain in the middle of their recent range between roughly 2.8 and 3 percent for the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note.</p> <p>Still, trade concerns continue to be front and center, with stocks taking a slide around midday Friday after President Trump said he&rsquo;s ready to put new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Reports in the media that the U.S. and China hadn&rsquo;t made progress in trade talks added to the cloudiness, as did reports that the U.S. and Canada remain far from an agreement. Volatility kicked up, with the VIX rising above 15 toward the end of the week, up from lows below 13 a week ago. The choppiness could continue in days ahead as geopolitical events might keep setting the tone.</p> <p>Also, the tech sector looks particularly volatile after losses for the FANG stocks last week. While there was a bit of recovery on Friday, those jitters might not just fade away overnight.</p> <h3>Jobs Report Helps Raise Rate Hike Anticipation</h3> <p>Before looking more closely at the week ahead, let&rsquo;s return briefly to Friday&rsquo;s August payrolls report. The data looked pretty good overall, with top-line jobs growth of 201,000 near Wall Street analysts&rsquo; expectations and hourly earnings up a tad.&nbsp;</p> <p>It was also a fairly broad-based report in terms of where jobs are being created. The economy lost jobs in some sectors, with worries centered on manufacturing, auto and retail. However, combine those three sectors and we&rsquo;re talking about 14,000 jobs. While you never want to see people lose work, it&rsquo;s a small number in the great scheme of things, and there were still 201,000 jobs created on a net basis in August.</p> <p>Where did those jobs come from? Sectors like healthcare, construction, and transportation. Some of those are areas that haven&rsquo;t necessarily been in the top-three in quite a while, so the report appeared to show the solid economy beginning to pull in some labor demand in sectors that hadn&rsquo;t been seeing it.&nbsp;</p> <p>Still, the stock market reacted Friday as if it didn&rsquo;t quite know how to react, and that&rsquo;s understandable. ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/09/12328837/trade-and-tech-same-issues-still-could-be-center-stage-as-new-week-begins alt=Trade And Tech: Same Issues Still Could Be Center Stage As New Week Begins>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL News TD Ameritrade Treasuries Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 News Treasuries Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Mon, 10 Sep 2018 13:51:32 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12328837 at https://www.benzinga.com As Long Weekend Looms, Stocks Under Pressure From More Trade Concerns https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12290550/as-long-weekend-looms-stocks-under-pressure-from-more-trade-concerns <p>Summer began as the market wrestled with trade concerns, and it looks like it might end the same way. Friday&rsquo;s last summer trading session gets underway with trade front and center amid worries about U.S. commercial relations with China, Europe and Canada.</p> <p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) has had a bunch of four-day win streaks this year and on Thursday, another four-day run came to end. The first pressure came after a closely watched inflation gauge posted a six-year high (see more below), and then trade issues provided the closing blow. Overseas markets took a beating earlier Friday, and U.S. stocks looked like they might limp into the long weekend.</p> <h3>Tariff Fears Back in Play</h3> <p>Stocks retreated late Thursday after report from Bloomberg that President Trump is ready to slap tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Tuesday, the day after Labor Day.&nbsp;</p> <p>Industrials and materials took the brunt of the pressure from a sector standpoint as investors might be wary about multinational companies potentially suffering the most from new tariffs and any reciprocal ones China might impose on U.S. goods. Still, pretty much every sector sank in the late going Thursday, with the best performances seen in traditionally &ldquo;defensive&rdquo; areas like utilities and health care.&nbsp;</p> <p>One thing to consider keeping in mind is that the Bloomberg article cited &ldquo;sources,&rdquo; not any official word from the White House, so nothing is in stone. However, it wouldn&rsquo;t be too surprising to see new tariffs considering the threats made by the administration in the past. So far, the U.S. and China have levied tariffs on $50 billion each of the other country&rsquo;s products. In addition, some analysts said the president&rsquo;s interview later Thursday where he touched on trade issues with Europe and discussed the possibility of the U.S. leaving the World Trade Organization sounded bearish. Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada are scheduled to wrap up today, so investors might want to consider keeping an eye on that.</p> <p>The steep losses after the news report reminded investors of what sometimes happens in thinly traded pre-holiday markets, especially ones where the indices recently hit all-time highs. Markets can get emotional and a little jittery at these levels, and that&rsquo;s what might have led to a more dramatic sell-off than what might usually happen from one piece of bad news.&nbsp;</p> <h3>International Wobbles</h3> <p>However, the China tariff story wasn&rsquo;t the only negative international news that helped snuff out the mid-week rally. Argentina&rsquo;s peso dropped sharply as the government there raised interest rates to 60 percent in an emergency move a day after it asked the International Monetary Fund to speed up disbursement of a $50 billion loan. Coming just a few weeks after Turkey&rsquo;s currency struggles, the news from south of ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12290550/as-long-weekend-looms-stocks-under-pressure-from-more-trade-concerns alt=As Long Weekend Looms, Stocks Under Pressure From More Trade Concerns>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AOBC Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Consumer Discretionary KO LULU News PEP TD Ameritrade Eurozone M&A Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets LULU US5500211090 KO US1912161007 PEP US7134481081 AOBC News Eurozone M&A Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Fri, 31 Aug 2018 13:49:37 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12290550 at https://www.benzinga.com View From The Tetons: Fed's Powell Recommends Gradualist Approach https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/18/08/12290365/view-from-the-tetons-feds-powell-recommends-gradualist-approach <p>Without dropping any policy-related bombshells, Fed Chair Jerome Powell still seemed to help give the market a lift with his speech last week at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Much of the market&rsquo;s focus concerned just a few words Powell said about a lack of &ldquo;overheating&rdquo; in the economy.</p> <p>&ldquo;While inflation has recently moved up near 2 percent, we have seen no clear sign of an acceleration above 2 percent, and there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating,&rdquo; Powell said. &ldquo;This is good news.&rdquo;</p> <p>It also seemed like &ldquo;good news&rdquo; for stocks, which quickly rumbled to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq (COMP) and S&amp;P 500 (SPX) shortly after the late August speech.</p> <h3>Hopes for a Less Aggressive Fed</h3> <p>Powell&rsquo;s words seemed to indicate that despite somewhat higher inflation, the economy isn&rsquo;t growing at a rate that would potentially cause price increases to get out of hand. Many analysts seemed to assume that the Fed could continue with its gradual rate hike policy, perhaps avoiding the need for the kind of aggressive rate hikes it&rsquo;s sometimes made in the past when the economy began growing more quickly. A more aggressive Fed might potentially pose greater risk to the stock market by making it harder for companies and consumers to borrow money and invest.</p> <p>His speech didn&rsquo;t appear to change odds of another Fed rate hike at the upcoming September meeting, at least not judging from the futures market. There&rsquo;s still a better than 96 percent chance of that, according to CME Fed funds futures. The market seemed to interpret Powell&rsquo;s words as dovish, notably him saying the economy isn&rsquo;t overheating. Stocks rose in the hours after he talked and the dollar weakened vs. the euro.</p> <p>Just days after Powell&rsquo;s speech, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices figure came in at 2.3 percent year-over-year, the biggest increase since March 2012. PCE prices are a metric the Fed has said it watches closely, so it&rsquo;s something investors might want to consider keeping an eye on in the ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/18/08/12290365/view-from-the-tetons-feds-powell-recommends-gradualist-approach alt=View From The Tetons: Fed&#039;s Powell Recommends Gradualist Approach>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> TD Ameritrade Federal Reserve Markets General Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Fri, 31 Aug 2018 13:31:41 +0000 TD Ameritrade 12290365 at https://www.benzinga.com Regional Manufacturing Readings Are Mixed As Tariffs And Trucking Capacity Disrupt Activity https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12283676/regional-manufacturing-readings-are-mixed-as-tariffs-and-trucking-capacity-disru <p>Regional surveys from Federal Reserve districts were mixed during the month, as softening conditions from the Philadelphia and Kansas City districts were offset by improvements in the Richmond and New York regions. Commentary from the regional surveys suggests tariffs, labor shortages, and the inability to find trucking capacity are curbing economic activity across the board, though growth remains generally positive.</p> <p><strong>About the regional surveys</strong></p> <p><img alt=" A map of Federal Reserve districts " class="thumb-image" src="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5899e78b1b10e35238fba886/t/5b86c0e0352f5346f50e4497/1535557873100/districts.png?format=1000w" /></p> <p>A map of Federal Reserve districts</p> <p>Each month, several Federal Reserve banks conduct surveys with local manufacturers on various aspects of business activity, including current production, new orders, shipments, hours worked, and prices paid and received. Indexes are created for each of the components of the survey by subtracting the percentage of businesses that say that activity is contracting from the percentage that say that activity is expanding. As such, any reading above zero indicating that activity in the region is expanding, with readings above 15 typically signaling solid growth.</p> <p>These regional surveys typically provide the first look at manufacturing conditions among government data. Results from the regional Fed surveys often provide insight into other economic indicators such as the ISM index and industrial production which are released in subsequent weeks.</p> <h3><strong>Strength in New York, Southeast, Texas</strong></h3> <p>The New York Federal Reserve&#39;s Empire State manufacturing index rose to 25.6 in August, up from 22.6 in the previous month. This marks the highest reading for New York&#39;s manufacturing sector of the year, and serves as a sign that demand conditions remain healthy well into the 3rd quarter. Both current shipments and new order showed some improvement during the month, and the various components on future expectations show that business in the area remain optimistic about growth going forward.</p> <p><a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/podcasts"><img alt="WTT_WebBanner_1334x209.png" class="thumb-image" src="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5899e78b1b10e35238fba886/t/5b86c05b0e2e729f459e4f2f/1533928416333/WTT_WebBanner_1334x209.png?format=1000w" /> </a></p> <p>A similar story emerged from the Richmond district, which covers the Southeastern part of the US above Georgia. The Richmond manufacturing index jumped four points in August to 24. ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12283676/regional-manufacturing-readings-are-mixed-as-tariffs-and-trucking-capacity-disru alt=Regional Manufacturing Readings Are Mixed As Tariffs And Trucking Capacity Disrupt Activity>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Freightwaves News Econ #s Federal Reserve News Econ #s Federal Reserve Benzinga Thu, 30 Aug 2018 15:55:29 +0000 FreightWaves 12283676 at https://www.benzinga.com US GDP Preview: A Minor Downgrade Will Not Deter The Fed, Export Component Is Key https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12270534/us-gdp-preview-a-minor-downgrade-will-not-deter-the-fed-export-component-is-key <ul> <li><strong>The second release of US GDP is expected to show a small downgrade.</strong></li> <li><strong>Changes in the composition of growth will be of interest.</strong></li> <li><strong>A drop below 4&nbsp;percent annualized will inflict some political damage but is unlikely to derail the Fed.</strong></li> </ul> <p>The US will release the second version of Q2 GDP on Wednesday, August 29th, at 12:30 GMT. The first read came out at a growth rate of 4.1 percent annualized, the fastest clip in four years. US President Donald Trump took a victory lap on the robust rate of growth.&nbsp;</p> <p>Part of the elevated growth rate is due to Chinese importers rushing to purchase US goods before China&#39;s counter-tariffs kicked in. Another part of the acceleration is due to other reasons. The second release is expected to show a modest downgrade to 4.0 percent. A minor change will keep the focus on the components of growth.</p> <h3>Exports may be too good</h3> <p>If exports had an even more ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12270534/us-gdp-preview-a-minor-downgrade-will-not-deter-the-fed-export-component-is-key alt=US GDP Preview: A Minor Downgrade Will Not Deter The Fed, Export Component Is Key>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> FXStreet News Forex Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets News Forex Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Tue, 28 Aug 2018 15:12:00 +0000 Yohay Elam 12270534 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell Sees No Signs Of Economy Overheating, But Key Data On Way This Week https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12262836/powell-sees-no-signs-of-economy-overheating-but-key-data-on-way-this-week <p>The last week of meteorological summer will begin with investors presumably digesting the latest words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, waiting for the next round of inflation data, and watching closely as the interest rate yield curve narrows. This all comes after markets hit new highs Friday amid generally dovish interpretations of Powell&rsquo;s remarks.</p> <p>Powell stood in the spotlight Friday and delivered a speech in Jackson Hole that wasn&rsquo;t what you&rsquo;d call full of surprises. Instead, he said a lot of the things he&rsquo;s said before: The economy is strong, but he doesn&rsquo;t see much risk of &ldquo;overheating&rdquo; as far as inflation goes, and he continues to support the Fed&rsquo;s gradual rate hike policy. Risks he cited included slow wage growth and rising government deficits. He didn&rsquo;t mention any risk from possible trade wars.</p> <p>His speech didn&rsquo;t appear to change odds of another Fed rate hike next month, at least not judging from the futures market. There&rsquo;s still a better than 98 percent chance of that, according to CME Fed funds futures. The market seemed to interpret Powell&rsquo;s words as dovish, notably him saying the economy isn&rsquo;t overheating. Stocks rose in the hours after he talked and the dollar weakened vs. the euro.</p> <p>Still, even as Powell spoke, the gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury note yields fell below 20, reaching its lowest level in more than a decade. Some economists fear a narrowing curve could point toward economic malaise, but there&rsquo;s been little evidence of that so far. Also, there was some positive news out of Europe last week, as a rise in markets there broke a three-week losing string.</p> <h3>The Week Ahead</h3> <p>More on the speech below, but first let&rsquo;s take a look at the week coming up. There&rsquo;s not much in the way of earnings news, but the economic calendar is pretty packed. The government is scheduled to deliver its second estimate for Q2 gross domestic product on Wednesday, followed by the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July on Thursday. Both reports could potentially shed light on how quickly the economy is growing and whether that growth might be translating into inflation.</p> <p>Investors might also want to consider keeping an eye on Washington, D.C, where recent political noise so far hasn&rsquo;t really affected the market much, and also on Treasury notes, which have been strong lately amid a sense of caution boomeranging around the markets. Another possibly volatile area could be oil, which rose last week amid concerns about Iran. Crude oil has bounded back really quickly from recent lows.</p> <h3>One Man Show</h3> <p>On Friday, however, the focus was squarely on one man: Fed Chair Powell. He&rsquo;s been very upbeat all year about the U.S. ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12262836/powell-sees-no-signs-of-economy-overheating-but-key-data-on-way-this-week alt=Powell Sees No Signs Of Economy Overheating, But Key Data On Way This Week>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL CAT DE GM News TD Ameritrade Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 CAT US1491231015 DE US2441991054 GM US37045V1008 News Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Mon, 27 Aug 2018 13:37:17 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12262836 at https://www.benzinga.com Waiting For Powell: Jackson Hole Speech Front And Center Early On https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/08/12256825/waiting-for-powell-jackson-hole-speech-front-and-center-early-on <p>The market is on pins and needles this morning as investors await word from Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Stocks moved slightly higher in pre-market trading, but the speech might ultimately help determine Friday&rsquo;s path.</p> <p>Bonds and gold edged slightly higher ahead of Powell&rsquo;s speech, while the dollar lost a little ground vs. the euro but remains near recent peaks. European and Asian stocks mostly rose overnight. U.S. and China trade talks ended yesterday with no signs of major progress, according to media reports.</p> <p>In addition, another round of retail earnings hit the Street early Friday, with <strong>Gap Inc.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gps#NYSE">GPS</a>) shares taking a tumble after the company reported a drop in same-store sales at Gap stores. Same-store sales did climb for other brands like Old Navy and Banana Republic, however.&nbsp;</p> <p>And shares of <strong>Foot Locker, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fl#NYSE">FL</a>) inched higher as the company slightly beat Wall Street analysts&rsquo; projections for earnings and revenue. So it&rsquo;s kind of a mixed bag for the retailers this morning.</p> <p>On the data front, durable goods for July came in worse than expected, falling 1.7 percent. Wall Street analysts had been looking for a drop of 0.6 percent. However, the core number, which strips out transportation, was up 0.2 percent, just a bit below the 0.4 percent expected. It looks like volatility in the airline sector drove the primary number, but the market is likely to discount the report because at the end of the day, earnings this week have arguably confirmed the health of the consumer.</p> <h3>Fed Front and Center</h3> <p>By the time you read this, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to be talking in Jackson Hole. His focus could be on any number of topics, but anything he says about the inflation or growth outlook is likely to get the most attention from investors. Another Fed hike is basically baked into the futures market for next month, so it seems unlikely he&rsquo;d say anything that would change minds about that.&nbsp;</p> <p>Consider listening, however, for anything Powell might say about overseas markets, many of which are still struggling with sluggish economic growth and low rates. This could play into how the Fed ultimately makes policy as the U.S. economy continues to grow much faster than many foreign ones. Another topic to potentially monitor is anything Powell says about U.S. wage growth, which by some measures still lags, and if he has any new insight into the narrowing U.S. yield curve. The speech is called &ldquo;Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy,&rdquo; and begins at 10 a.m. ET.</p> <p>One interesting perspective came from Marketwatch, which speculated that Powell might discuss the Fed&rsquo;s policy options in the event of an economic downturn. This was a topic of discussion at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.&nbsp;</p> <p>Earlier Friday, financial news networks ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/08/12256825/waiting-for-powell-jackson-hole-speech-front-and-center-early-on alt=Waiting For Powell: Jackson Hole Speech Front And Center Early On>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AMD Earnings FL GPS INTC LOW News TD Ameritrade TGT Treasuries Federal Reserve Markets INTC US4581401001 AMD US0079031078 FL US3448491049 GPS US3647601083 LOW US5486611073 TGT US87612E1064 News Earnings Treasuries Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Fri, 24 Aug 2018 14:09:26 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12256825 at https://www.benzinga.com Fed On Center Stage As Jackson Hole Meeting Starts, With Powell Speech Friday https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/08/12251056/fed-on-center-stage-as-jackson-hole-meeting-starts-with-powell-speech-f <p>As Fed officials and other dignitaries gather in Jackson Hole for an annual symposium, attention also turns toward U.S. trade talks with China. Headlines from either of these events could possibly sway the market one way or the other Thursday, and there was a mixed tone as the day began.</p> <p>Even as trade delegates from China and the U.S. met in Washington, both countries slapped new tariffs on $16 billion of each other&rsquo;s goods Thursday.</p> <p>On days like this, an element called &ldquo;headline risk&rdquo; sometimes rears its head. No one knows whether a Fed official might say something market-moving in an interview in Wyoming, or whether some sort of progress or lack of progress from the trade talks might filter through. For long-term investors, it&rsquo;s once again a time to consider not letting minute-to-minute market fluctuations steer you away from your goals. People who sold earlier this week during a flurry of political headlines out of Washington, D.C., for instance, might be regretting that now (see more below).</p> <p>As the trade talks began Wednesday after a gap of more than two months, multinational stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) including <strong>Caterpillar Inc. </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cat#NYSE">CAT</a>) and<strong> Boeing Co.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ba#NYSE">BA</a>) fell slightly. Companies like these, with big stakes in trade, that have been kind of a barometer for the ups and downs of the U.S./China trade tiff over the last six months. So consider keeping an eye on them for possible hints. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (RUT) index of small-cap stocks set a new all-time high yesterday, maybe in part because some investors believe those stocks have better insulation from the trade winds. The Nasdaq (COMP) has had a five-day winning streak.</p> <h3>Few Surprises From Fed Minutes</h3> <p>The Fed&rsquo;s minutes from its meeting earlier this month came out Wednesday, but it was hard to find much in there that most investors didn&rsquo;t already know. The news headlines focused on the Fed&rsquo;s worries about possible trade wars hurting the economy, something that basically repeated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell had said in testimony to Congress earlier this summer.</p> <p>In its meeting deliberations, the Fed also discussed removing the term &ldquo;accommodative&rdquo; from future policy statements, which could be mildly interesting if it happened but really is more of a semantics issue than anything else. The Fed has been getting less accommodative since late 2015, when it began raising rates. There&rsquo;s no sign of the Fed moving toward a more accommodative stance anytime soon. There was nothing in the minutes, really, that would indicate any departure from better than 95 percent odds (according to CME Group futures) of another 25-basis point rate hike at next month&rsquo;s meeting.</p> <p>In one of the first interviews from Jackson Hole, Kansas City Fed President Esther George told CNBC she thinks the U.S. could see 3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full year. She called that &ldquo;well above what the economy can operate at in a steady state&rdquo; and doesn&rsquo;t think it can continue for multiple quarters. She also says she&rsquo;s not forecasting &ldquo;much higher&rdquo; inflation than current levels but does see it going higher.&nbsp;</p> <p>The symposium highlight tomorrow is a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</p> <h3>Techs Plow Back</h3> <p>Looking at Wednesday&rsquo;s market ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/08/12251056/fed-on-center-stage-as-jackson-hole-meeting-starts-with-powell-speech-f alt=Fed On Center Stage As Jackson Hole Meeting Starts, With Powell Speech Friday>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> BA BABA CAT Consumer Discretionary Earnings Home Improvement Retail LB LOW News NFLX NVDA PLCE TD Ameritrade TGT Federal Reserve NFLX US64110L1061 NVDA US67066G1040 PLCE US1689051076 BA US0970231058 CAT US1491231015 LOW US5486611073 TGT US87612E1064 BABA LB US5024701071 News Earnings Federal Reserve Benzinga Thu, 23 Aug 2018 14:07:50 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12251056 at https://www.benzinga.com Despite Pre-Market Softness, S&P 500 On Track For Longest Bull Run On Record https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12244178/despite-pre-market-softness-s-p-500-on-track-for-longest-bull-run-on-record <p>It&rsquo;s day 3,453 of the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) bull market, and depending on how you measure it, that&rsquo;s the longest on record.</p> <p>So it may be time for a word of caution. Hitting a record by definition means that this bull market is aging. Of course, no one can predict the market or know how long this bull run might keep going. But it may be worth considering that all bull markets in the past, no matter how long they&rsquo;ve lasted, have come to an end. It&rsquo;s perhaps a reminder for long-term investors that market ups and downs tend to smooth out over the long run.</p> <p>Although legal developments for two former Trump advisers appeared to pressure U.S. stock futures slightly Wednesday morning, it has been relatively calm on the geopolitical front recently. That comes against a backdrop of continued strong corporate earnings and data that show that the U.S. economy seems to be chugging along nicely even as inflation doesn&rsquo;t appear worrisome.&nbsp;</p> <p>In earnings news Wednesday, <strong>Target Corporation</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tgt#NYSE">TGT</a>) shares were up more than 6 percent in pre-market trading after the retailer issued a strong earnings report. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.47 on revenue of $17.78 billion. TGT was expected to report adjusted EPS of $1.40 on revenue of $17.29 billion, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. As with Walmart, which saw shares rocket higher upon its earnings release last week, same-store sales were a bright spot. TGT said same-store sales rose at the highest level in more than a decade&mdash;13 years, to be exact&mdash;according to CEO Brian Cornell.&nbsp;</p> <h3>Consumer Discretionary and Industrial Leadership</h3> <p>On Tuesday the S&amp;P 500 touched an intraday record of&nbsp;2,873.23. Maybe all the record talk sparked some optimism of its own. But the market was also buoyed during a day when market participants may have been exhibiting some optimism that the U.S. and China could make headway in trade talks this week. Also, worries about Turkey&rsquo;s troubled economy and currency seemed to have receded.&nbsp;</p> <p>The consumer discretionary sector was the best performing of the SPX&rsquo;s 11 sectors. The sector was helped by gains ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/08/12244178/despite-pre-market-softness-s-p-500-on-track-for-longest-bull-run-on-record alt=Despite Pre-Market Softness, S&amp;P 500 On Track For Longest Bull Run On Record>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Consumer Discretionary DHI Homebuilding LEN News PHM TD Ameritrade TGT TOL Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets DHI US23331A1097 LEN US5260571048 PHM US7458671010 TGT US87612E1064 TOL US8894781033 News Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Wed, 22 Aug 2018 14:04:42 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12244178 at https://www.benzinga.com