How Markets Turn
Opinions into Expectations

What if you could put a price on what you think will happen next?

Markets are constantly turning opinions about the future into expectations—and those expectations into prices. In this session, Gianni DiPoce and Raj Shah, Senior Instructor at Cboe’s Options Institute, will explore how prediction markets offer a powerful framework for understanding that process and turning a view into a structured market expression.

Move beyond simply being bullish or bearish. Learn how to translate probabilities into prices, assess what markets are implying about future outcomes, and spot potential opportunities when your view differs from the market’s expectations.

We’ll break down how prediction markets work, how probabilities become tradable prices, and what changing prices can reveal about collective expectations. Along the way, we’ll look at practical frameworks for evaluating uncertainty, identifying potential edge, and thinking more systematically about outcomes that haven’t happened yet.