Your Resources To Predict Brexit: Polling And Betting Markets Explained
Brexit, the hottest speculative topic of the week now that Cleveland beat Golden State, is expected to resolve after U.K. polling stations close at 5 p.m. Eastern Time Thursday. The final result should be known after all the votes are tallied by Friday morning.
In order to predict the probability of a Brexit effectively, polls and betting markets tend to be among the most accurate resources publicized.
Polls have been split over June, however there seems to be a trend where larger sample sizes indicate a larger leave vote. The following polls are from Financial Times’ Poll Tracker:
Smaller Polls (Notable Mid-June Polls <1,200 sample size):
- 6/19: ORB 800 sample: 46 percent leave, 53 percent remain
- 6/19: Survation 1,004 sample: 42 percent leave, 45 percent remain
- 6/15: Survation 1,104 sample: 45 percent leave, 42 percent remain
- 6/15: Survation 1,064 sample: 43 percent leave, 46 percent remain
Larger Polls (Larger Polls In Mid-June):
- 6/19: Yougov 1,652 sample: 44 percent leave, 42 percent remain
- 6/17: Yougov 1,694 sample: 44 percent leave, 42 percent remain
- 6/17: Opinion 2,006 sample: 44 percent leave, 44 percent remain
- 6/17: YouGov 1,734 sample: 43 percent leave, 44 percent remain
The fact that two out of the latest three polls are smaller polls could cause inaccurate public predictions on betting markets if speculators don’t take into consideration the threat of inaccuracy due to smaller sample size. Another factor to take into consideration is YouGov’s consistency in a field of great discrepancies between polls could be displaying YouGov’s superior accuracy in its polling.
Additionally, an Investor can gain valuable insights from public betting markets. Results from Predictit.com, a prominent political betting website in the United States are shown below.
At the time of writing, speculators believed there was a 25 percent probability of Brexit by year-end 2016 and the actual voting brackets are speculated as followed:
As seen above, prediction markets were currently deviating from polling numbers. Perhaps speculators believe Jo Cox’s death and Soros’ warning of “Brexit Black Friday” have not been fully reflected in polls.
Find the more detailed Brexit market data here.
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