Could iPhone 12 Be The Best-Selling Model Since iPhone 6?

Apple, Inc. AAPL didn’t unveil the iPhone 12 at this week’s annual event, but experts anticipate Apple’s first 5G-capable phone is likely coming sometime in October.

There will undoubtedly be a tremendous demand for Apple’s first 5G phone, but the million-dollar question for investors is just how big the iPhone upgrade cycle will be.

The Numbers: New data from SellCell suggests the iPhone 12 could be the biggest iPhone launch since the iPhone 6. SellCell found there has been a 63% increase in iPhone trade-in activity in 2020 leading up to the launch of the iPhone 12. This year marks the first time trade-ins have increased by more than 60% ahead of an iPhone launch since the lead-up to the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.

The iPhone X, iPhone XR and iPhone 7 are the three most common iPhone models being traded in the month of September.

The bullish trade-in data comes the same week BankMyCell found that 38% of iPhone users are waiting for the iPhone 12 to upgrade their current device.

Munster’s Take: Despite the encouraging data, Loup Ventures' Gene Munster told Benzinga demand for the iPhone 12 could struggle to live up to investor expectations.

“The reason is 5G coverage is still limited, and its unlikely consumers will pay extra for features they can’t use. Starting in the fall of 2021 demand for iPhone 5G will quicken, and we anticipate three years of 10-15% annual iPhone revenue growth, which compares to flat iPhone growth over the previous three years,” Munster said.

Benzinga’s Take: Investors have a playbook for this type of upgrade cycle given the iPhone 5 was the first iPhone to be 4G-capable back in 2012. Apple has a long track record of successfully building and maintaining its massive global user base, and there’s no reason to expect the 5G upgrade cycle will be any different.

Related Links:

Survey: 50% Of US iPhone Users Plan To Upgrade In 2020

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