After Mixed Q2 Report, Novavax Analyst Details Possible Coronavirus Vaccine Catalysts

Novavax, Inc. NVAX released better-than-expected bottom-line results for the second quarter Monday, although revenue trailed estimates.

An analyst at H.C. Wainwright said they're focusing on the key milestone events for the company's coronavirus vaccine candidate after the print. 

The Novavax Analyst: Vernon Bernardino reiterated a Buy rating on Novavax with a $290 price target. 

The Novavax Thesis: The robust Phase 1 results Novavax reported for its coronavirus vaccine NVX-CoV2373 point to the high likelihood of positive confirmation of efficacy and safety at the "5+50" dose in Phase 2 testing, analyst Bernardino said in a Tuesday note. (See his track record here.)

This is a positive late third-quarter catalyst and dovetails with the planned initiation of the first efficacy study in September, the analyst said. 

Novavax plans to commence a 1,500-subject Phase 2 study in the U.S. and Australia, contingent on FDA approval, he said. 

The company has been stitching up collaboration agreements outside of the U.S. and North America, Bernardino said.

The collaboration with the privately held Serum Institute of India will likely support NVX-CoV2373 development, commercialization and distribution of a minimum of 1 billion doses for India and low- and middle-income countries, the analyst said. 

"We look for the announcement of similar partnerships for other geographical regions, such as Canada, Australia and Southeast Asia, as potential positive catalysts in 3Q20."

Along with the 500-million-plus doses that could be made available in the U.S., Novavax has established the potential to distribute more than 2 billion doses worldwide upon the licensure of NVX-CoV2373, according to H.C. Wainwright. 

NVAX Price Action: Novavax shares were retreating by 8.94% to $162.56 at last check Tuesday. 

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