Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter thinks the bull market is officially over. Gartman unveiled his thesis in a new note to subscribers on Wednesday morning:
"We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly…our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year."
Missing the start of the bull market in 2009 could have still worked out for investors, and this time, "missing the start of the bear market shall likely prove just as wise," Gartman added.
Forces Of Supply Demand A Warning
According to Gartman, a healthy bull market typically shows a positive balance of supply and demand, "suggesting investors are quietly accumulating stock under the cover of the sideways price movement."
The last twelve months have not shown this pattern -- they've actually shown the opposite. "The forces of Supply and Demand are suggesting deteriorating conditions that, over our 88 year history, have been associated with the formation of major market tops," Gartman explained. Lowry's primary measures of supply and demand signal that Buying Power lost 80 points between December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2015, while Selling Pressure gained 36 points.
The Short Term Index, a shorter-term measure of demand according to Gartman, has also shown "reduced" buying interest.
Peaking Margin Debt Another Signal
Gartman also highlights a chart from Dr. Doug Short that indicates NYSE margin debt is near an eight-year high. "Every eight years margin debt peaks and with it stock prices," he said.
The S&P 500 began Wednesday morning off nearly 19 points, down 1 percent. The Dow is off 184 points.
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