Piper Jaffray Reiterates Neutral, $35 PT on Ctrip.com

Piper Jaffray maintains its Neutral rating and $35 target price on Ctrip.com

as data on fourth quarter China air is mixed. Piper Jaffray says, "Growth comparisons from 2010 began easing in Q4 given Oct-10 was the final month of the Shanghai World Expo, however the month of December showed a y/ y growth deceleration from November. Passenger air traffic growth from 3 major Chinese airlines modestly accelerated to +5% y/y in Q4 vs. +3% y/y in all of Q3, while RPK modestly decelerated from 6.4% y/y in Q3 to 6.2% in Q4. These mixed data points appear neutral to our estimates. Specifically, we are modeling for 20% y/y net revenue growth in Q4, followed by an acceleration in CY12. CTRP shares are down 29% since the company reported Q3 results and with an improving set of data points likely in the coming months, we believe downside risk from the mid $20s is likely limited." CTRP closed at $24.31 per share on Thursday.