The market for coal used to make steel is in the summer doldrums, but supply outages in Australia and the United States are providing underlying tightness that could cause prices to spike in the late summer and fall once Asian steelmakers start restocking.
Mine fires in Australia and West Virginia and a lock and dam closure in Alabama are causing latent tightness that won't become visible until India and China come back to the market between August and October. Once they do, prices are likely to move higher but remain capped below record highs by a sluggish global economy.
"The supply side looks very supportive of met coal prices," John Berman, chief investment officer with natural resources investment management company Berman Capital Group, told Benzinga. "It's the demand side that is potentially the brakes on any price rally."
Australia's Grosvenor Outage
Among the top concerns of the market right now is the outage at Anglo American's (OTC:NGLOY) Grosvenor Mine, which supplies more than 1% of global seaborne steelmaking coal.
An explosion and fire forced the company to suspend production at the mine late last month, knocking out up to 3 million tons of Anglo’s total expected 15-17 million metric tons of steelmaking coal output for 2024. On Thursday, the miner revised that guidance to 14-15.5 million metric tons.
The day after the explosion, Anglo said the outage could last several months because of likely damage underground.
Last week, Australian mining union officials said they were worried that Grosvenor might close permanently, although they acknowledged that Anglo was trying to recover the mine.
Metallurgical coal prices initially jumped on the Grosvenor news, but then retreated as Anglo reportedly assured customers of third quarter deliveries. However, the company reportedly said it wouldn't be able to meet delivery obligations in the fourth quarter.
"While the incident will continue to provide support and tighten supply, it appears that part of the initial price rally was speculative," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
US River Transportation Outage
In the United States, the Army Corp of Engineers closed the Holt Lock and Dam on the Black Warrior River in Alabama on June 22 as a safety precaution because of cracks and leaks. The river is a key artery for barge transportation of coal.
The infrastructure will be closed for three to five months while a new steel-enforced bulkhead can be manufactured, Army engineers said.
US Longview Mine Outage
On June 30, the Longview Mine in West Virginia caught fire, according to media reports. The federal Mine Safety and Health Administration is investigating the incident.
As of Friday, the mine remained out of commission, sources familiar with the matter told Benzinga. One of the sources said the mine could reopen this week while another said workers had reentered the mine last week.
Industry chatter suggests the mine won't be back to full production for months, although one of the sources said it is the operator's goal to restart mine production as soon as possible.
Based on a similar incident at Peabody's Shoal Creek Mine last year, Warder said the Longview outage could keep 0.5-1.5 million short tons of high volatile metallurgical coal off the market in 2024 and up to 3.5 million short tons off next year if the mine remains offline.
Higher Prices to Benefit Miners
The three incidents have tightened metallurgical coal supply, but at the moment there isn't a strong upward price reaction because steelmakers in India, China, Europe and Brazil aren't yet looking to make purchases on the spot market to replenish their stocks. Meanwhile, U.S. coking coal buyers are just getting their annual procurement process started this month.
"This is a very sleepy time in the market," Warder said.
Late last month, Australian premium coking coal futures, an industry benchmark, could be seen at $233 per metric ton, a far cry from their record high above $360 set in October.
When heavyweight steel producers India and China come back to the market between August and October, the demand may push prices higher than they would otherwise go if not for the production outages in Australia and the United States.
Warder thinks $300 steelmaking coal prices are in play sometime in the fall, although the market won't get back to the highs from the previous year because of a weaker Chinese economy.
"I think we could see $300 in the short term once the restocking season gets underway, although I don't know how sustainable that price will be with current demand," Berman said, adding that "$360, I think, is very unlikely without robust Chinese demand this year."
Firmer prices stand to benefit coking coal producers, Warder said.
That includes BHP and Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE:AMR), he added.
Even with Grosvenor out, Anglo American still stands to benefit from its other metallurgical coal production, he said. And Warrior can use other transportation to get its coal to market, meaning the dam and lock outage isn't a showstopper for the company, he said. Peabody will also be able to get its Alabama coal to market, while it also produces Australian coal to sell, he said.
Berman agrees that Warrior and Alpha will be among the biggest beneficiaries as prices move higher. He also adds Australian miner Whitehaven Coal Ltd. (OTC:WHITF) to the list.
"Warrior will likely produce a little more free cash flow through the end of this year than I was expecting," Berman says.
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