Penske Automotive's Model Designed To Outperform Uncertain Economic Environment, Says Analyst

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  • Benchmark analyst Michael P.Ward has reiterated a Buy rating on the share of Penske Automotive Group Inc PAG with a price target of $175.
  • The analyst believes PAG’s diversified model will outperform the auto sector in an uncertain economic environment.
  • About 70% of Penske’s Automotive Retail revenue comes from Premium Brands, the highest percentage of the Dealer Comp Group.
  • Historically, buyers of Premium Brand vehicles are less affected by economic cycles, which in the analyst’s view, will mitigate risk for PAG in an uncertain economy.
  • Replacement of the aging fleet along with increasing distribution needs has provided growth above the auto sector, and the analyst expects the trend to continue.
  • The analyst has cut 2023 and 2024 earnings assumptions largely to reflect ongoing used vehicle industry concerns and an increase in expected floorplan interest costs.
  • The analyst expects supply in the global new vehicle market to improve steadily in 2023 but believe the improvement will be slower than market expectations in the Premium/Luxury and volume import brands.
  • Penske’s track record with capital allocation over the years has been among the best in the auto sector. The analyst expects the dividend and repurchase authorization to be increased in 2023.
  • Price Action: PAG shares are trading higher by 4.14% at $142.35 on the last check Tuesday.
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