Oracle Likely To Gain Traction In Medium Term Backed By Cloud Momentum, Improving Margins, Analyst Says Post 3Q Results

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  • Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi reiterates Buy on Oracle Corp ORCL with a $116.00 price target.
  • Oracle's 3Q was driven by substantial cloud revenue ahead of consensus. While on-prem revenue came in slightly below consensus estimates, the company beat on cloud growth, operating margins, and EPS. 
  • Management was particularly bullish on its OCI differentiation and Cerner.
  • Management guided to an impressive Q4 guide of 30%+ cloud growth. 
  • The analyst increased the FY23 cloud revenue estimates and slightly lowered the license on-prem license. 
  • Panigrahi raised the operating margin estimate as the company progressed on its cost-cutting initiatives. 
  • The analyst increased EPS estimates, which benefit from margin improvements and a forecasted decline in the Q4 tax rate.
  • Despite the uncertain macro backdrop where competitors have noted headwinds, Oracle continues to see strong momentum across its SaaS and OCI business. 
  • The analyst reminds investors that ORCL remains uniquely differentiated in application and infrastructure markets. 
  • As the only true vertically integrated infrastructure and application provider with a best-in-class ERP/HCM offering and a rapidly improving infrastructure (OCI Gen 2) offering that is price competitive, the analyst expects that Oracle will continue to gain traction over the medium term.
  • Both cloud growth and significant margin improvements over the medium-term back the re-rating.
  • Price Action: ORCL shares traded higher by 1.01% at $84.94 on the last check Monday.
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