AbbVie Can Write Diversified Growth Story Without Humira, Rest Of The Business Has Strength, Analyst Says

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  • Guggenheim initiated coverage on AbbVie Inc ABBV with a Buy and a price target of $172 on diversified growth.
  • Investors have "naturally" been focused on Humira's erosion curve as it loses U.S. market exclusivity, but the analyst believes that has led to people overlooking the strength of the rest of AbbVie's business. 
  • As the company completed its first decade as an independent company, most of it driven by Humira's remarkable success, the analyst says AbbVie is well positioned to deliver more diversified growth over the next ten years without Humira.
  • Related: AbbVie Beats On Q4 Earnings, Skyrizi Sales Grows 76%, Annual Guidance Lags Consensus.
  • The analyst writes that products such as Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Vraylar can drive further upside through recent or upcoming line extension opportunities.
  • Guggenheim also expects pipeline assets such as epcoritamab and Teliso-V to help stabilize the company's oncology franchise, while the macro-driven temporarily slowdown AbbVie's aesthetics franchise.
  • This year will be a down year, and the analyst expects modest sales and earnings decline in 2024 but sees the company well-positioned to deliver mid-single-digit sales and double-digit earnings growth after that through the end of the decade, allowing for potential upside to estimates as well as multiple expansion.
  • Price Action: ABBV shares are up 0.36% at $154.45 on the last check Wednesday.
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