US Extended Student Loan Moratorium, Analysts Reduced Estimates, Price Targets On SoFi Technologies

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  • Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev maintained SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI with a Buy and lowered the price target from $7 to $6 despite remaining upbeat on the stock.
  • The seemingly never-ending student loan saga continued yesterday with President Biden extending the moratorium by another six months through June, with up to two months of potential payments pause afterward
  • Unlike following the extension in April, he believes the impact on 2023 sales and profits should be less dramatic.
  • This is primarily due to a lower expectation for refinancing in the current high-rate environment. 
  • The current extension led to his revenue and adjusted EBITDA downward revisions.
  • Wedbush analyst David Chiaverini reiterated SoFi with an Outperform and reduced the price target from $8 to $6.
  • Chiaverini lowered 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 GAAP EPS estimates owing to lower student loan origination assumptions. There is no change to his 2022 GAAP EPS estimate. 
  • SOFI's valuation is attractive relative to its growth prospects and well-positioned to be in a tight space, given its strong cash position and durable business model.
  • Chiaverini writes that a premium valuation is warranted owing to the company's high growth, one-stop-shop model, and integrated technology platform through Galileo & Technisys, which differentiates SoFi from other neobanks. 
  • Chiaverini expects credit quality to be stronger than peers, given that its borrowers are at the higher end of the credit spectrum with an average FICO of ~750. Its bank charter provides flexibility to manage through a turbulent credit buyer market.
  • Price Action: SOFI shares traded lower by 0.97% at $4.60 on the last check Wednesday.
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