Snapchat's 'Open-Ended Growth Story' Solidified After Analyst Day Event

Snapchat parent company Snap Inc SNAP hosted Tuesday its Analyst Day presentation and many Street analysts agreed the social media company's "open-ended growth story" is achievable.

The Snap Analysts: KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Justin Patterson maintains an Overweight rating on Snap's stock with a price target lifted from $63 to $87.

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak maintains an Overweight rating on Snap with a price target lifted from $80 to $85.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Mark Zgutowicz maintains a Buy rating on Snap with a price target lifted from $70 to $100.

Needham analyst Laura Martin maintains a Hold rating on Snap's stock.

Revenue Growth 'The New Normal': Snap's management team discussed its strategic priorities, new product and advertising features that place the company on a medium-term "open-ended growth story" path, Patterson wrote in a note. The four key points Snap emphasized include:

• Revenue growth of 50% is the "new normal" and driven mostly from the core Snap app.
• Snap plans on adding new features to Maps and Spotlight and the company will follow a "conscious approach" towards monetizing the additions.
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• The company is "strongly positioned" to benefit from augmented reality trends over the coming years.
• Management is targeting gross margins of at least 60% over the medium-term and this is "very achievable" given the company's expense and capital allocation discipline.

5 Engines Of Growth: Snap's management made the case for multi-year "durable" growth will be driven by five factors, Nowak wrote in a note.

• Momentum from advertiser growth backed by new sales teams that focus on individual industries.
• Ongoing improvements in ad targeting, optimizing, and attribution.
• Investments in AR that will support engagement.
• Accelerating international user growth.
• Commitment to growing at an "industry-leading level."

Related Link: Snap Has Upside To $80, Morgan Stanley Says In Upgrade

EBITDA Expansion 'More Impressive': Perhaps "more impressive" than 50% revenue growth is Snap's outlook for "healthy" adjusted EBITDA expansion, Zgutowicz wrote in a note. The research firm is estimating Snap's Adjusted EBITDA to improve from $77 million in 2020 to $626 million in 2021 and ultimately rise to $1.1522 billion by 2029.

Over the same time period, average revenue per user (ARPU) will expand from $9.44 in 2020 to $12.78 in 2021 and $42.19 by 2029.

Valuation Concerns: Snap's management deserves credit for an "excellent job" in explaining its near-term plan but investors should stick to the sidelines amid valuation concerns, Martin wrote in a note. Shares of Snap are already trading at an expensive valuation at 19 times 2022 estimated revenue.

Also, the math behind management's revenue growth trajectory implies half of the growth must come from ARPU growth, the analyst wrote. That may not be possible in the first place or it could "irritate its users enough" to push them away from the platform.

SNAP Price Action: Shares of Snap hit a new all-time high of $73.59 Wednesday morning and closed at $69.47.