A successful COVID-19 vaccine could be a bumper revenue opportunity for the pharmaceutical companies, with the market estimated to generate at least $10 billion in revenue a year, according to analysts.
The Thesis: Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse analysts estimate that people will need the vaccine every year, like a flu shot, at a projected cost of $20 per dose, the Financial Times reports.
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison said that COVID-19 is not going to go away and will require people to get vaccinated annually. The market size could be worth $10 billion in developed countries alone, even with the conservative assumption that only those who take a flu shot go for the COVID-19 vaccine.
Credit Suisse analyst Evan Seigerman estimates that the market could be even larger and worth $10 billion in the U.S. alone.
The Contenders: Even AstraZeneca plc AZN and Johnson & Johnson JNJ could make money off the vaccine once their promise of supplying the vaccine at a cost basis till the end of the pandemic is over, FT noted.
Moderna Inc MRNA president Stephen Hoge had said that vulnerable people would continue to get booster shots for a while, and though the opportunity is smaller than flu, it is not a trivial one.
Moderna is expected to submit COVID-19 vaccine trial data to the U.S. regulator in November. The company is developing a vaccine for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and flu, and either could be combined with a COVID-19 shot.
FT notes that the pharma companies have received billions in government funding in the past eight months, and it could profit from public money.
In July, Ex-FDA Commissioner had said that the COVID-19 vaccine should be priced similar to a flu shot, which will afford the company a sufficient margin and some profit that could be invested back in the manufacturing process for future vaccines.
In October, a report claimed that AstraZeneca could start profiting off the vaccine from July 2021, while another report said that Pfizer Inc's PFE mRNA vaccine could garner $3.5 billion in 2021 sales.
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