VBI Vaccines Could Nearly Triple In Value On New Drug Launches, According To BMO

VBI Vaccines, Inc. - Ordinary Shares VBIV will release results on three clinical trials in the first half of 2018, presenting certain investment opportunities of an uncertain nature.

Some on the Street predict Buy-worthy data — “free call options.”

The Rating

BMO Capital analyst Do Kim initiated coverage on VBIV with an Outperform rating and $11 price target.

The Thesis

Kim considers VBI’s Phase III hepatitis B vaccine, Sci-B-Vac, “largely de-risked” and at a commercial advantage over GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) GSK’s clinically inferior Engerix-B and Dynavax Technologies Corporation DVAX’s Heplisav-B, whose safety profile posed early regulatory concerns. (See Kim's track record here.) 

“We estimate WW peak sales of $677 million, with a 70 percent probability of success,” Kim said in a Wednesday note. 

VBI’s early stage pipeline could lend additional, unfactored upside, according to BMO.

Kim projects “a rapid clinical path” for the VBI-1901 glioblastoma candidate to drive global peak sales of $1.5 billion, while expected efficacy improvement in the Phase I congenital cytomegalovirus vaccine, VBI-1501A, could yield $2.2 billion, the analyst said. 

Price Action

BMO's positive rating — which echoes the sentiment of the two other research firms covering the stock — catalyzed a 6.7-percent spike. At the time of publication, shares were trading at $4.28, up 2.6 percent off the open.

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Photo courtesy of the FDA.