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Analyst: Apple's 'Lame Duck' Quarter Report Doesn't Mean Anything

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s earnings report Tuesday doesn't warrant much attention, at least according to Maxim Group's Nehal Chokshi, who described Apple's June-ending quarter as a "lame duck."

In essence, it doesn't matter what Apple says or does in the quarter, Chokshi explained Monday on CNBC. Apple is clearly at the end of its iPhone 7 product cycle and many consumers who would have otherwise bought an iPhone are waiting for the release of the iPhone 8 to do so.

The same thinking can also be said for whatever guidance Apple offers for the September-ending quarter, the analyst said. Typically when a new iPhone is released it begins selling to the public in the final 10 days of a fiscal quarter so no guidance can accurately measure how big the "real demand" for will be.

"What really will matter is the December quarter guidance ... three months from now," he said. "It is a lame duck quarter in my opinion."

But that doesn't mean that investors don't need to pay attention to what's going on moving forward. Specifically, investors should be paying attention to any developments within Apple's supply chain pertaining to when the phone will be released and true demand.

In the meantime, the analyst isn't fully convinced the iPhone 8 will be delayed. But if it's delayed then the net effect will merely be shifting 10 to 15 million unit sales from the September quarter to the December quarter.

Finally, the analyst's surveys and research into the iPhone market in China reveal that loyal iPhone users "aren't going away" as there is "huge pent up demand" in the country.

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Latest Ratings for AAPL

DateFirmActionFromTo
Sep 2018NomuraMaintainsNeutralNeutral
Sep 2018JP MorganInitiates Coverage OnOverweight
Sep 2018Bank of AmericaMaintainsBuyBuy

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