DexCom Diamond 2 Results Positive, Or At Least Not As Bad As Expected

Reviewing the data from the second arm of DexCom, Inc.'s DXCM Diamond study, Baird said the results are positive for Continuous Glucose Monitoring, or CGM, and modestly positive, or at least not as feared for insulin pumps.

The results were inadvertently released through a poster at the tenth international conference on Advanced Technologies & Treatments for Diabetes in Paris on Wednesday. This faux pas came ahead of the official release/discussion of the results at the conference on Thursday.

Testing the Combinations

Discussing the results in a note published on Wednesday, Baird said in the second arm of Diamond, 38 patients continued on CGM + Multiple Daily Injections, or MDI, for another 28 weeks, while 37 patients were stratified at the 24-week mark to CGM+ insulin pump use. This firm noted the first 24 week phase of the Diamond trial presented at the American Diabetes Association in June 2016 showed that there was a net 0.6 percent HbA1c improvement for CGM+MDI over MDI alone.

Related Link: DexCom Jumps 25% As It Becomes Only Continuous Glucose Monitoring With Medicare Coverage

Pumps Better for Poorly Controlled Patients

Analyst Jeff Johnson said the 38 patients who continued on CGM+MDI over the subsequent 28 weeks saw a 0.1 percent rise in HbA1c, while those stratified to the pump saw a 0.3 percent rise in HbA1c. However, the analyst noted for those patients that weren't well controlled (defined as HbA1c above 7.5 percent), the change in HbA1c from week 24 to one year was a 0.1 percent increase with CGM+MDI but was down 0.1 percent for CGM+ insulin pump.

Time in Zone at one year, which is the primary endpoint for Diamond 2, fell 2 minute/day for the MDI group but increased 78 minute/day in the pump group, Baird said. However, the firm noted time in hypo increased with pump use.

The Initial Verdict

Offering its initial view on the inadvertently released information, Baird said the results are good for CGM, as they show sustained HbA1c improvements at one-year, regardless of the method of insulin infusion, the MDI or the pump. The firm also concluded that insulin pumps can potentially be additive to CGM use in all but the best-controlled patients.

Baird has a Neutral rating and a $79 price target on the shares of DexCom.