Absence Of Headline Risk Has Given Expedia Shares Room To Recover

Shares of Expedia Inc EXPE had been under pressure after the company reported mixed results for Q2 and management offered cautious commentary. More recently, shares have enjoyed meaningful run-up, boosted by the absence of any major terror events, Benchmark’s Daniel L. Kurnos said in a report.

Analyst Kurnos maintained a Buy rating on Expedia, while raising the price target from $135 to $150.

Somewhat Cautious

Kurnos enumerated three major reasons for being “somewhat cautions heading into the quarter”:

• Increasingly bullish sell-side momentum
• Volatile hotel performance in Europe and parts of Asia
• Expedia’s valuation being close to the high end of the recent historical trading range

The analyst added, however, that the underlying travel trends were expected to be favorable for Expedia. The company’s profit and performance would likely be backend loaded, with Trivago’s impending IPO “potentially supporting valuation and keeping an identifiable catalyst on the table near-term.”

Expectations

Expedia’s y/y EBITDA growth guidance of 35-45 percent appears achievable. Kurnos expects the company’s US RevPAR and ADRs to improve, offset by flat to modestly lower occupancy rates. Europe’s RevPAR and ADR are likely to be flattish to slightly up, with declining occupancy rates.

“The Trivago IPO remains a bit of a wild card, with recent reports indicating the move could be completed by Thanksgiving,” the analyst commented.

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