Credit Suisse On Deutsche: Price Action Overstating The Risk

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Shares of Deutsche Bank AG (USA) DB lost almost 7 percent after a Bloomberg article cited an internal report from that company stating that a number of client funds had withdrawn some excess cash and positions. “We think the price action overstates the short-term litigation risk,” Credit Suisse’s Jon Peace said in a report.

Analyst Peace maintained an Underperform rating on Deutsche Bank, with a price target of €13. Following the Bloomberg article, Deutsche Bank responded by saying, “We are confident that the vast majority of [our trading clients] have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the US, and the progress we are making with our strategy.”

Excessive Pressure On Shares

Litigation risk has been a significant concern area since the US DOJ suggested that Deutsche Bank may settle its RMBS litigation for $14 billion. Peace expects the ultimate settlement to be much smaller and estimated about €4 billion for this issue.

The analyst further noted that about €3 billion of Deutsche Bank’s €5.5 billion of litigation reserves were for US RMBS litigation and that the company’s phased-in CET1 ratio of 12.2 percent was almost €6 billion ahead of the phased-in ECB requirement of 10.75 percent.

Peace pointed out, however, that even if the settlement amount for the US RMBS litigation comes at reasonable levels, other cases may result in additional headline risks and “weigh on core capital generation over 2H16-2018.”

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Posted In: Analyst ColorShort IdeasReiterationAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasCredit SuisseJon Peace
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