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7 Wall Street Firms Interpret Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech

7 Wall Street Firms Interpret Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech

The S&P 500 showed very little reaction on Monday to Janet Yellen’s policy speech last week at Jackson Hole. A number of Wall Street firms have weighed in on the speech and what it means for investors. Here’s a look at what seven analysts had to say.

Related Link: Here's How Traders Positioned For Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech

7 Highlighted Voices

    1. Scotiabank: Analyst Derek Holt sees “little reason for this speech to materially alter market pricing of rate risks that will continue to be highly state/data-dependent. He added that the speech’s lack of time-dependent language all but ensures a September interest rate hike is not happening.
    2. Barclays: Analyst Michael Gapen pointed to Yellen’s comments about the strengthening case or a rate hike as confirmation of Barclays’ call for a September rate hike. Gapen noted the Fed’s increasing confidence in the economy “stems largely from the improvement in labor markets since mid-year and the rebound in household spending.”
    3. Citi: Analyst Steven Englander “expected a little more dovsishness," but added, "but I think this is reassuring enough given where the market was coming from.” Englander believes Yellen will use the September meeting to set the stage for a December hike.
    4. Goldman Sachs: Analyst Jan Hatzius believes Yellen’s remarks were as hawkish, as she was willing to be ahead of this week’s August jobs report. “If the employment report continues to indicate an improving labor market, the FOMC may well raise rates at the September meeting,” Hatzius concluded.
    5. HSBC: Analyst Kevin Logan viewed the speech as simply the status quo. “The policymakers are leaning toward a rate hike, but feel that they can wait until they are more confident that the expansion will continue at a sustainable pace and that inflation will rise toward their 2 percent target,” Logan explained. HSBC believes the Fed will be extremely cautions and wait until mid-2017 for the next rate hike.
    6. UBS: Analyst Samuel Coffin noted Yellen has now subtly shifted her focus away from the list of market concerns she highlighted in her June policy testimony. “Her more upbeat assessments of the current economy are consistent with our expectations for a rate hike at the end of this year, and her emphasis on gradualism supports our call for only two hikes next year,” Coffin concluded.
    7. Bank of America: Analyst Emanuella Enenajor agreed with the general consensus that Yellen’s hawkish language upped the chances of a September rate hike, but the most likely scenario remains December. “The market continues to assign roughly 60 percent chance to a December rate hike, which we feel is appropriate given the potential for an increase in uncertainty heading into the election,” Enenajor explained.

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