Amgen's Near-Term Catalyst Is Ph3 IVUS According To Goldman Sachs

Following in the delay in the release of data by Amgen, Inc. AMGN for its ongoing Repatha Phase 3 trials, Goldman Sachs’ Terence Flynn now believes that the Phase 3 IVUS data could be a more important near-term catalyst for the stock.

Flynn maintains a Buy rating on the company, with a price target of $202.

IVUS Trial

“In 2H16 we expect AMGN to report data from an ongoing Ph3 trial of Repatha (PCSK9 inhibitor) designed to evaluate the drug’s impact on coronary plaque volume via intravascular ultrasound (IVUS),” the analyst mentioned.

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Given that Repatha was able to demonstrate a significant lowering of LDL cholesterol in the previously reported data, Flynn expects the drug to also have a meaningful impact on percent atheroma volume (PAV), which is the primary endpoint of the IVUS trial.

Estimates

The trial assumes a treatment effect of PAV change of at least 0.706 percent. However, if LDL levels of 40mg/dL are achieved, the PAV change might be greater than 1 percent.

“In our view if the Repatha IVUS data are positive, it will serve as an additional piece of data to support that the drug will likely have a beneficial impact on lowering CV events in Ph3,” Flynn stated.

The analyst continues to believe that Repatha could achieve peak sales of $4 billion, assuming that the drug has a significant impact on CV outcomes.