Market Overview

Jefferies Shares Pharma Stock Catalyst Outlook

Jefferies Shares Pharma Stock Catalyst Outlook

Jefferies analysts led by Jeffrey Holford and Ian Hilliker shared their monthly update on the global pharmaceuticals industry. The firm sees attractive catalysts in the sector, and believe fundamentals and valuation are alluring. However, “investors may need a little more patience whilst we wait for the political headwinds to blow through the next few months.”

Jefferies continues to favor AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV), Novartis AG (ADR) (NYSE: NVS), Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY), Roche Holding and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE). On the other hand, the analysts are becoming increasingly concerned about the risk/reward profile and fundamentals at Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) and Novo Nordisk.

Below is a summary of potential upcoming clinical and/or regulatory catalysts.






IPR institution decisions for Humira

Jefferies analysts anticipate IPRs filed by Boehringer Ingelheim against the ‘135 Humira patent will be instituted

Mid 2016

Merck & Co.

Phase III KEYNOTE-024 data for Keytruda


Mid 2016


Phase II CheckMate-139 data for Opdivo

Data of the PD-1 inhibitor Opdivo in relapsed/ refractory DLBCL could be used to file for this indication.

Mid 2016



Phase II and III data lebrikizumab (STRETTO,


Results are more significant following the “disappointing mixed results from the LAVOLTA I-II trials in severe asthma.”

Mid 2016

Sanofi/ Eli Lilly/ Novo Nordisk

Phase III data for biosimilar Humalog

The data could “disrupt the current duopoly between Lilly and Novo.”

Mid 2016


Phase II DYNAMO study for duvelisib

Data could result in an “expedited filing pathway.”

July 2016

Novo Nordisk

Phase II data for oral insulin

The opportunity is substantial, but so are the technical barriers to development

Q3 2016


Phase II readout for ABT-122 vs. Humira

Data could prove ABT-122 is a better option than Humira in psoriatic arthritis

Q3 2016

Eli Lilly

Phase III MONARCH 2 data for abemaciclib

Results for breast cancer could provide extra support for the abemaciclib filing

Q3 2016

Merck & Co.

Phase II KEYNOTE-055 study for Keytruda

This event could “help support he head and neck PDUFA on Aug 9, 2016”


Q3 2016


Phase II CheckMate-275 data for Opdivo

“The Phase II CM-275 study in second line bladder cancer could provide an expedited filing pathway”

Q3 2016

AbbVie/Johnson & Johnson

Phase II DAWN data for


“The Phase II data in chemo-immunotherapy resistant follicular lymphoma could provide a Q3 2016 expedited filing pathway for Imbruvica”

Q3 2016


Source: Jefferies research, company data, FDA,

Latest Ratings for NVO

Sep 2019UpgradesNeutralBuy
Sep 2019ReiteratesNeutral
Aug 2019DowngradesHoldUnderperform

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