SunTrust's Bob Peck Sees Upside To Netflix's Q1 Subs Offset By Lower Q2

Netflix, Inc. NFLX is scheduled to report its 1Q results on April 18. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey’s Robert S. Peck maintained a Neutral rating for the company, with a price target of $115, saying upside to 1Q domestic subs is likely to be offset by a lighter 2Q.

In-line International

Analyst Robert S Peck expects Netflix to report its 1Q total/paid sub adds in-line with the guidance of 4.35 million, driven by LatAm and Rest of World.

Although forex is likely to provide a modest tailwind to ARPUs, the 2Q and full-year consensus revenue expectations appear reasonable, Peck added.

Domestic Sub Adds

SunTrust’s proprietary quarterly data work suggests paid sub adds of about 2.4 million, higher than the consensus expectation of 2.0 million. “Our data work indicates a good content quarter with Fuller House the (surprise) standout hit,” the analyst wrote.

Peck added, however, that the 1Q sub upside is likely to be offset by lower net sub adds in 2Q, on account of “an uptick in churn with the expiration of grandfathered pricing.” The expiration of grandfathered pricing in 2Q and 4Q is expected to drive a 4 percent ARPU increase each in 2Q and 3Q and a 3 percent increase in 4Q ARPUs.