Market Overview

Alcoa Earnings Are Coming Soon...And UBS Is Above Consensus


Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) will kick start the first-quarter earnings season by reporting its quarterly numbers on April 11, and UBS's earnings estimate is above the consensus.

The lightweight metals maker is expected to earn $0.02 a share on revenue of $5.16 billion, which is lower than $0.28 earnings and $5.82 billion sales reported in the same quarter last year.

"Our Q1 EPS estimate of $0.03 is above consensus of $0.02 but below Q4/15 adjusted EPS of $0.04," UBS analyst Matt Murphy wrote in a client note.

Related Link: Bank of America: Steel Dynamics A Better Bet Than U.S. Steel

"AA's realized aluminum price is expected to be relatively flat sequentially as LME prices (on the 15-day lagged basis typically realized by AA) were less than 1% higher QoQ while we expect realized alumina prices to decline significantly. Earnings for Arconic (AA's value-add businesses) are expected to be relatively flat YoY," Murphy added.

Murphy expects that Arconic's Q1 will be relatively lackluster, and he will be looking for a meaningful ramp-up in the outlook for the business in Q2–Q4 if AA's 2016 targets are to be achieved.

"We see this ramp-up as important to achieve the planned separation and the re-rating of the value-add business," said Murphy, who expects lower alumina prices (down ~20 percent QoQ) to weigh on upstream earnings in the first quarter.

Murphy has a Buy rating and $11 price target on the shares of Alcoa, which were up 1.23 percent at $9.84.

Latest Ratings for AA

Sep 2019UpgradesNeutralOutperform
Jul 2019DowngradesBuyHold
Jul 2019DowngradesBuyHold

View More Analyst Ratings for AA
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Analyst Color Earnings News Guidance Price Target Commodities Previews Reiteration


Related Articles (AA)

View Comments and Join the Discussion!

Latest Ratings

PNRJefferiesInitiates Coverage On
IPHIBank of AmericaMaintains80.0
View the Latest Analytics Ratings
Don't Miss Any Updates!
News Directly in Your Inbox
Subscribe to:
Benzinga Trading Daily
Get pre-market outlook, mid-day update and after-market roundup emails in your inbox.
Market in 5 Minutes
Everything you need to know about the market - quick & easy.
Daily Analyst Rating
A summary of each day’s top rating changes from sell-side analysts on the street.
Thank You

Thank you for subscribing! If you have any questions feel free to call us at 1-877-440-ZING or email us at

Here's What Happened At Jefferies' 3D Printing Summit

Lululemon Surges After Q4 Beat