Goldman's Least Favorite REITs: Bigger Isn't Better

In a new report, Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Rosivach combines healthcare REITs and triple net REITs into a single “net lease” category. Overall, Goldman maintains a neutral outlook for the 10 names in the category, but believes that REITs with smaller balance sheets represent the best opportunities for growth.

Goldman is most bearish on some of the names with the largest number of assets, including Ventas, Inc. VTR, Realty Income Corp O and HCP, Inc. HCP.

“Within the group, we downgrade VTR to Neutral from Buy and keep O and HCP at sell, as each of these companies should have slower growth given current size,” Rosivach explains.

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Goldman doesn’t have a single Buy rating on any net lease REITs with market caps greater than $10 billion. Roivach adds that REITs with smaller balance sheets tend to have stronger growth and net lease REITs tend to have stronger tenants and balance sheets.

Goldman’s top Buy-rated picks in the space are Vereit Inc VER and Store Capital Corp STOR.

For Vereit, Rosivach notes declining debt and the potential for acquisitions in 2017 and beyond. The firm has a $9.50 price target for the REIT.

Rosivach also likes Store Capital’s 6.0 percent annual earnings growth forecast through 2020, which is the highest in the group. Goldman has a $30 target for the REIT.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.