FBR: Disney Analysts Shouldn't Assume Lower Profits In 2017

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  • Walt Disney Co DIS shares have appreciated 14.21 percent year-to-date, trading close to their 52-week high on August 4 at $121.69.
  • Barton Crockett of FBR & Co. has maintained an Outperform rating on the company.
  • Although Disney bears argue that the strength of "Star Wars" is insufficient to offset concerns regarding ESPN, Crockett expects consensus expectations for the company to move up in FY16 and beyond.

Analyst Barton Crockett mentioned, “The bears argue that Force Awakens provides an unusual, unrepeatable lift to studio profits in FY16, so studio profits will be lower in FY17.”

However, Disney has two "Star Wars" movies scheduled for release in FY17, both of which are likely to be boosted by the strength of 'The Force Awakens."

"Those movies should also sustain CP licensing and boost the home video tail of Force Awakens, which, in FY17, will enter lucrative pay and free TV windows globally," Crockett said.

Related Link: Despite Massive 'Star Wars' Potential, Jefferies Is Still Waiting On The Sidelines Of Disney

In addition, another edition of "Pirates of the Caribbean," two Marvel movies and "Cars 3" are also scheduled for FY17. Then there is the live action version of "Beauty and the Beast," along with "Moana," which is a Pacific island based princess story that has been “getting early buzz comparable to Frozen.”

On the other hand, TV data has also been improving, with TV advertising in October/November appearing “surprisingly healthy,” driven by football.

Although there have been concerns that international macro headwinds would weaken international visitation to Orlando, the trends here remain robust. In addition, over the next two years, Disneyworld intends to make its theme part products significantly more impactful, with the addition of large themed areas based, one based on the movie "Avatar" and the other on "Star Wars."

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Posted In: Analyst ColorLong IdeasReiterationAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasBarton CrockettESPNFBR & Co.Star Wars
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