Apple's Mega-Bull Says Stock Hinges On This

• Apple Inc. AAPL shares have been volatile since mid-April, and are down 12 percent over the period.
• FBR & Co’s Daniel H. Ives maintained an Outperform rating on the company, with a price target of $175.
• While the Street is eager for the December quarter guidance, Ives believes that the performance of Apple’s stock would depend on the success of iPhone 6s.

Apple is scheduled to report its F4Q15 results on October 27. Analyst Daniel Ives expects the company to record revenue and EPS at $50.9 billion and $1.89, in-line with the consensus estimates. Apple is expected to have sold 49 million iPhone units in the quarter.

“Apple has become a battleground stock given the confluence of China headwinds, worries about 6s growth prospects, and uninspiring June results,” Ives wrote.

Although there are continued concerns over an "iPhone 6 hangover," the Street is focusing on the company announcing its iPhone guidance for the December quarter “with a 75 million number being the bogey,” the analyst said.

The supply chain checks gave mixed indications of demand for iPhone 6s, following strong opening weekend sales of 13 million units. Ives added, however, that this appears “overblown” since Apple has ramped up its supply of iPhones with a few tweaks to meet healthy demand and appears to be on track for y/y growth in FY16.

In the report FBR & Co noted, “This will be a bipolar outcome for Apple (and its investors) following results/guidance, as the narrative for the Apple story rests on the shoulders of 6s with "good enough" December guidance starting to turn the tide in a positive direction, in our opinion.”