Eli Lilly's 'Home Run' Is Jardiance, Says Morgan Stanley

• Eli Lilly and Co LLY shares have appreciated 29 percent year-to-date, and closed after-hours trading at $90.10 on September 17.
• Morgan Stanley’s David Risinger expects Eli Lilly's shares to gain strength on Friday, September 18, due to the results exhibited by Jardiance for diabetes.

EMPA-REG OUTCOME exhibited a 38 percent decline in CV deaths, a 35 percent reduction in hospitalization for heart failure, and a 32 percent decline in all-cause mortality.

Eli Lilly’s shares rose 7 percent on September 17, and could experience additional strength on September 18, David Risinger said, adding that Jardiance had hit “a home run for diabetes.”

In the report Morgan Stanley noted, “Jardiance's 38% reduction in CV death drove the benefit on the primary endpoint of 3P-MACE (CV death, nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke). There were 13% lower risk of nonfatal MI but 24% higher risk of nonfatal stroke, which resulted in an overall benefit of 14% lower risk on 3P-MACE.”

On the key secondary CV outcome of 4P-MACE, Jardiance did not show superiority, but did exhibit non-inferiority, with a risk reduction of 11 percent. “Impressively the benefit on CV death started to become evident at three months,” Risinger wrote.

EMPA-REG OUTCOME did not reveal an increased risk of diabetic ketoacidosis or bone fractures for Jardiance. Risinger expects the sales trend of Januvia, the long-acting diabetes pill by Merck & Co., Inc. MRK, to be negatively impacted by the results exhibited by Jardiance, albeit “not to a major degree.”