Here's Why Oil Prices Can Fall All The Way Down To 2009 Lows Of $32/Barrel By October

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Oil prices broke the $42 mark earlier today and went as low as $41.35, a level not seen since March 2009. The question everyone seem to be asking right now can the price fall further?

 

John Kilduff, Again Capital founding partner, was on CNBC recently to answer that question.

 

Prices Will Go Lower In Coming Days

 

On whether he expects prices to fall further, Kilduff said, "I think, certainly in the coming days and weeks, but I don't think today [...] The catalyst though could be the rig count, here at 1 O'clock we will see if that rose yet again, which will make the third week in a row, which will just confound everyone that with the price sliding the way it is that these folks continue to put new holes in the ground and attempt to sell oil at whatever price they can get."

 

Can Go To $32 By September-October


Kilduff was asked if he expects oil prices to fall all the way to $32, the lows it made in 2009. He replied, "I think, something has got to give at some point and, I think, we will be in the process of seeing, I think, the real destruction here in the September-October timeframe when our U.S. refiners go into what's called seasonal maintenance and they re-tool to produce a [...] winter fuels, different types of gasoline and obviously [emphasize] heating and diesel fuels."


He continued, "That's going to cause a big back up [that's] downtime in crude oil inventories which should crush the price I believe down towards the financial crisis lows of about $32 a barrel. From there we will start to see U.S. production decline and if we do see U.S. production get below 9 million barrels in the first part of 2016 or signs of it, I will expect the Saudis [to] declare a victory and potentially throw in with a cut of their own."

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