Deutsche Bank Bullish On Biogen: New Data Doesn't Change Probability Of Success For Alzheimer's

In a report issued Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analysts Robyn Karnauskas, Mohit Bansal and Evan Seigerman reiterate a Buy rating and $460.00 price target on shares of Biogen Inc BIIB, following the results for its Phase 1 Alzheimer's study, in which a 6mg Aducanumab dose failed to significantly slow mental deterioration.

The experts assure that they don’t see any major changes to the probability of the Alzheimer's Program. In fact, the company told the firm that “data are directionally in right direction and [thus] they continue to go ahead with their phase 3 plans.”

According to the note, the analysts think with phase 1b success they can only assign a 25 percent probability to Alzheimer’s. Moreover, the 6mg data does not change this view.

Related Link: Piper Jaffray On Biogen Downgrade: '6 MG Data Does Not Inspire Confidence…Even More Speculative Than Before'

Deutsche Bank feels encouraged that “the CRD-SB (clinical dementia rating sum of boxes; the same measure being used as the primary endpoint in the ph 3) for 6 mg is between the results of 3 and 10 mg/ kg doses.” Morever, they are “not worried about the non-stat. sig. benefit in this trial, as the trial was very small.”

At this point, the dosage Biogen will use in the phase three is unknown. So, the firm continues to wait for dose titration data – expected in 2016, which could help the experts appreciate if ARIA (amyloid-related imaging abnormalities) can be mitigated via dose titration.

Shares of Biogen fell more than 4 percent on Wednesday trading.