GRPN comments from Brean, CS, MS

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Groupon, Inc.
GRPN
, which IDC says is the 10th largest e-commerce platform, reported its 1Q15 results in-line with its updated guidance but below the consensus expectations. In a report published Wednesday, analysts at Brean Capital reiterated their Buy rating and price target of $11 for Groupon. The analysts believe that the current share price does not reflect the strength in the company's operating results, although the schedule share buyback worth $300 million in 2H is likely to act as a near-term catalyst for the stock. "If the headlines that Groupon missed against the consensus 1Q forecasts drive the shares lower, we would recommend investors purchase shares because of the strength of its operating performance against the proper barometers," Brean Capital said. The company posted 12.2 percent growth in its North American billings, marking the third straight quarter of double-digit growth. Groupon outperformed the adjust EBITDA estimates, despite the ramping of discounts during the quarter. The company intends to continue with its discounting program in order to drive sales. "We were encouraged by management's comments that it plans on adding inventory to be shipped directly by the seller as a way to drive both top line and margins for its Groupon Goods efforts. At the minimum, it should contribute to Groupon achieving its 15% gross margin goal," the analysts added. In a report published Wednesday, analysts at Morgan Stanley maintained their Equal-Weight rating on Groupon, as well as the price target of $7.50. "While stability in NA Local remains encouraging, given declining take rates we continue to see limited material upside to consensus, and view risk/reward as balanced," the analysts said. The company posted mixed Q1 results, with the revenue missing the estimates and the adjusted EBITDA ahead of the estimates. Groupon has issued its 2Q15 revenue and EBITDA guidance below the consensus and the estimates While the North American Local gross billings remained stable during Q1, commission rate concessions and customer couponing "continued to limit the flow through," the analysts said. According to Morgan Stanley, "Management remains bullish on key growth initiatives, emphasizing a goal to achieve 20% y/y growth for NA Local Billings "over the long-term"." In a report published Wednesday, analysts at Credit Suisse maintained their Neutral rating on Groupon, as well as their price target of $8. The company's 1Q revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in below the consensus and the estimates. "While NA local gross billing saw double digits year-overyear growth, take rate continued to deteriorate as Groupon increased its investments in order discounts to drive bookings growth and attract higher quality merchants to its platform," the analysts said. The company has already started migrating its Goods operations to a third party fulfillment and shipment network, in an attempt to grow its gross margins. According to the analysts, a more constructive stance on the stock could be driven by the company's "focus on improved demand generation against the supply base it has already assembled: 1) greater traction in the local segment through mobile offerings and Page product, 2) greater consumer engagement and adoption as company's Pull initiatives gain traction, 3) margin expansion in the goods business through logistics optimization."
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Posted In: Analyst ColorReiterationAnalyst RatingsBrean CapitalCredit SuisseMorgan Stanley
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