Early Easter 'More Than Just A Shift' For Retailers

In a recent report, analysts at Deutsche Bank weighed in on this year's early Easter holiday and its impact on retailers. While it is well understood that the early Easter will have a positive effect on this year's March retail numbers and a negative effect on the April numbers, analysts are convinced that there's more to the early Easter than a simple shift in buying.
A string of Q1 excuses
The retail sector has made it abundantly clear that expectations should be low for first quarter earnings numbers in the space. The list of excuses includes poor weather, the West Coast port issues, a pull forward of tax refunds and the strength of the dollar.
More than a shift?
Analysts believe that there's more to the early Easter than simply shifting sales projections forward by two weeks. They believe that the early Easter will have an overall negative effect on sales numbers, as they project that March's gains will not fully make up for April's losses. "Sure, consumers will buy their Easter goods," analysts explain in the report. "But, we think if Easter is later, there is more anticipation, more opportunities to make incremental purchases, and probably better weather to foster more Easter related activity."
The report includes a breakdown in early versus late Easter sales numbers since 2000 that indicates that overall March and April combined numbers are slightly lower during early Easter years.

Outlook
Despite the Easter weakness, Deutsche Bank maintains their Buy ratings on The Michaels Companies Inc MIK, The TJX Companies Inc TJX and Ross Stores Inc ROST. Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating on Pier 1 Imports Inc PIR.