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UPDATE: Miller Tabak Downgrades Agrium On Mixed Factors


In a report published Wednesday, Miller Tabak analyst Tim Tiberio downgraded the rating on Agrium (NYSE: AGU) from Buy to Hold and lowered their 12-month price target from $105 to $103.

In the report, Miller Tabak noted, “With shares of Agrium trading at 13.4x and 11.8x FY:15 and FY:16 consensus earnings estimates, respectively, we see a diminishing valuation case in H1:15, despite recent margin catalysts in the nitrogen and phosphate markets. To be clear, we remain positive on Agrium's long-term growth story, driven by a combination of continued retail market share expansion, wholesale production expansion, and greater cost discipline. Furthermore, we anticipate that lower natural gas cost realization, phosphate margin expansion, potential for solid spring fertilizer demand pull in US, and canola/durum wheat acreage recovery in Canada should enable Agrium to beat consensus FY:15 EPS estimates. Nevertheless, we see limited room for multiple expansion on our above-consensus FY:15E in light of remaining margin pressures in the company's global retail network (e.g. signs of US farmer sensitivity to seed-crop chemical prices, lower input demand in Australia). With shares trading ~13x our FY:15, we see improved nitrogen-phosphate margins as being fairly reflected in AGU at this point.”

Agrium closed on Tuesday at $102.51.

Latest Ratings for AGU

Dec 2017Initiates Coverage OnOverweight
Oct 2017Initiates Coverage OnBuy
Sep 2017UpgradesHoldBuy

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Posted-In: Miller Tabak Tim TiberioAnalyst Color Downgrades Analyst Ratings


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