Citigroup Upgrades Apollo Global Management, Says 'The Only Thing Distressed Is The Stock Price'

William Katz of Citigroup on Tuesday upgraded shares of Apollo Global Management LLC APO to Buy from Neutral with a price target raised to $27 from a previous $24 following the company's Investor Day held on December 11.

“Three factors drive the change in thinking,” Katz wrote. “First we have greater confidence FPAUM growth is poised to accelerate. Second, we see another strong year of strong realizations in 2015 which should sustain best in class yield potential. Third, the risk/reward is more favorable reflecting the 30 percent year to date decline.”

Katz cites management's three- to five-year target asset under management of $250 billion to $300 billion (up from $164 billion), reflecting both organic and inorganic growth. The analyst adds that the “most potent” contributor will come from Credit and Real Estate as well as new products including specialty PE funds.

Katz also notes that the company's management will likely be net sellers in the short- to mid-term but “ready to step-up dry powder deployment” into sectors like Energy. Additionally, the company is a beneficiary given its contrarian, credit-oriented approach if certain industries enter early stages of a distressed cycle.

Finally, the analyst states with the stock lagging its risk/reward profile is now favorable with the company's underlying earnings power higher than previously assumed.