Market Overview

6 Reasons Morgan Stanley Is Optimistic About Oil Prices

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Oil fundamentals do not appear as bad as rhetoric suggests, but OPEC will likely be the key driver of price action for now, according to a note out from Morgan Stanley on the recent oil price decline.

According to Morgan Stanley, reasons for optimism have emerged:

  1. The market has hit price levels and timelines that are consistent with prior reductions in the quota.
  2. The rapid decline in price raises anxiety
  3. Well-informed trade houses have commented that markets underestimate the potential for action
  4. We are seeing more rational and preliminary dialogue from OPEC members
  5. US capex restraint is already being discussed
  6. OPEC forecasts a cut is needed in 2015, and implementing a change in quota can take time.

"While there is some uncertainty about the November meeting, we feel confident about a cut for 2015. A 15-20% price decline is typically required to spur OPEC to reduce its production quota."

Oil futures were up slightly at $74.69 on the January 2015 futures contract.

The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE: USO) was up about 0.5 percent at $28.34.

Posted-In: Morgan StanleyAnalyst Color News Commodities Markets


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