Attention May Turn To Fox Results At Q2 Conference Call

The newly revised script for Twenty-First Century Fox

second-quarter conference call later Wednesday promises to be a telephonic version of a reality TV show. Attention to actual results for the media conglomerate might be be overshadowed by Murdoch's withdrawal on Tuesday of his $85 a share bid for Time Warner

. On the other hand, Time executives refused to broad the subject on their own second-quarter conference call earlier Wednesday. But apart from the potential merger or lack thereof, investors will look for details on how much Fox's future prospects are hurt by falling ratings for its broadcasting segment -- in particular for its hit show American Idol. Fox shares are down more than 6 percent in the year to date, although much of that stemmed from worry that Fox would overpay for Time Warner. Morgan Stanley's Benjamin Swineburne expects cable network affiliation renewals and broadcast retransmission fees should drive double-digit growth through 2016 in earnings before taxes, interest and depreciation. Fox unveiled a $9 billion deal last week to sell its Italian and German pay-television business to British Sky Broadcasting Group. On Tuesday, the company unveiled a $6 billion stock buyback and Swineburne expects capital returns from the deal to help Fox's shares. Wide speculation that withdrawal of the Time Warner bid could be merely a negotiating ploy seems unlikely to be addressed by Fox executives. And whether the 83-year-old Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch will actually get on the phone is an open question. Fox had previously been widely expected to raise --rather than withdraw-- the bid. Swinburne thinks Fox's bid could have gone 23 percent higher -- to $105 a share -- without over paying for the acquisition. Analysts expect Fox will post second-quarter earnings of $0.39 cents a share, on revenue of $8 billion. Fox traded up more than 5 percent Tuesday afternoon to $32.90 a share.