4 Analysts Agree: Airliner Alpha Potentially Facing A Layover
The airline industry has come under pressure on Monday as traders digest information contained within four separate research notes released this morning.
Overall it appears that a slowdown in production coupled with less than expected demand in Asia is putting pressure on major airliners. Singapore Airlines reported last Wednesday that its profits fell on weaker revenues thanks to aggressive competition from budget firms like AsiaAir.
Depressed freight traffic growth and depressed passenger demand growth has caused airliners to fall out of bed with investors.
Sterne Agee noted business jet aircraft for sale increased 6 percent; inventories are also sitting at 12 percent of the global fleet. The first half of 2014 saw deliveries from the big five manufactures increase 17 percent from the first half of 2013.
Second quarter and year over year takeoff/landing data have shown gains of 5 percent each.
Credit Suisse offered the most in-depth review. The Research & Analytics team noted Singapore Airlines faces stiff competition as it continues to succumb to pressure from overcapacity.
Profits fell 71 percent on weak revenues (revs fell 4.1 percent) as more seats were sold at a discount in an effort to fill planes. Asian demand for air travel has not lived up to the expectations of the region's premium airlines, and the demand that is present faces head winds from "highly aggressive budget airlines."
Aero Defense earnings have largely produced upside surprises with eight of the 15 equities highlighted by CSFB beating expectations:
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Addressing growth for the near-term UBS (NYSE: UBS) says it sees strong aftermarket growth for Q2 and says it sees growth “decelerating modestly” in H2. The record production rates coming out of AirBus and Boeing (NYSE: BA) face sustainability risks.
Boeing is expecting 2014 year over year aircraft orders to increase 12.5 percent before contracting in 2015 and 2016 posting 5.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
|(NYSE: ALK)||Alaska Air Group||0.0|
|(NASDAQ: AAL)||American Airlines||2.0|
|(NYSE: DAL)||Delta Airlines||3.0|
|(NASDAQ: JBLU)||Jet Blue||2.5|
|(NYSE: LUV)||Southwest Airlines||3.0|
|(NYSE: UAL)||United Continental Airlines||3.0|
Airbus sees 2014 total aircraft deliveries increasing 1.3 percent before surging in 2015, 2016, and 2017 by 6 percent, 3.5 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively. Boeing's stock price has disconnected from it's usual correlation to the Book-to-Bill ratio.
Airliners may benefit from the recent drop in oil prices, but any benefits gained from that windfall may be offset by poor performance and weak demand.
Latest Ratings for LUV
|Jan 2017||JP Morgan||Downgrades||Overweight||Neutral|
|Jan 2017||Morgan Stanley||Upgrades||Equal-Weight||Overweight|
|Dec 2016||Barclays||Initiates Coverage On||Equal-Weight|
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