Citi's Road to Better Earnings 'Could Take 1-2 Years to Ramp Up,' Bernstein Says

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On Tuesday, Bernstein Research downgraded shares of Citigroup
C
from Market Perform to Outperform and raised the price target from $52 to $57. Analyst John McDonald's upgrade is based on:
  • Heightened confidence in Citi's ability “to improve efficiency and get on a path to 0.90% ROA.”
  • Market expectations have been adjusted “to a one-year CCAR delay.”
  • Belief that Citi “can address the Fed's stress test concerns during 2014 and begin returning a significant amount of excess capital over the next several years.”
The road to better earnings and return on assets “is likely to be bumpy and capital return could take 1-2 years to ramp up,” but the analyst views the long term risk/reward as “attractive.” According to McDonald, downside will be “cushioned by growing book value (adding $4-$5 per year) and the current valuation (0.85% of TBV).” Shares of Citigroup are trading up by 0.60 percent to $47.96 in Tuesday's pre-market trading. The $57 price target represents 18.8 percent upside from current levels.
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