Mary Meeker's Latest Tech Views (XLK, SOCL, AAPL, GOOG, FB)

Mary Meeker, head of Morgan Stanley's technology research unit, is out with a new report on the growth of mobile technology. Titled internet trends, she divides the presentation into five parts: basic stats, re-imagination, the economy and how it affects tech trends, "USA Inc," and are new internet trends a bubble?

To be quite honest, she really says nothing new. For a more in depth overview of what she said, read here. One of the key points she makes in the basic stats portion is that the US is a fairly saturated internet and mobile market. 79% of Americans use the internet regularly and 64% of Americans have 3G service. Compare this to China, where only 38% of the population uses the internet and 6% of people have 3G, or India, where only 10% of the population uses the internet and only 4% have 3G subscriptions. The point is that any substantial growth in mobile and internet usage is going to come from emerging markets, especially those with a rising middle class.

As the chart above shows, android GOOG adoption has been much faster than iPhone AAPL adoption. Investors may view this as a sign that Google is more efficient at rolling out a new product, but remember that Apple changed the game, Google just entered it. She also points out that there is approximately a $20 billion opportunity in mobile and internet advertising, which would benefit a whole host of companies, including Apple, Google, Facebook FB, and Millennial Media MM, which is a small-cap alternative.

The real question thus becomes: where in the internet and mobile cycle are we? As shown above, we can see that being in the middle of the hype stage and the peak of it tell much different stories of the future. Or, one could ask, has the recent capitulation of social media stocks SOCL represented the fall from disappointment to realism? If so, there may be lots of upside in these names; but if not, there may be dark days ahead.