JP Morgan Posts Update on Gilead Sciences' November HIV Trends

JP Morgan has published a research report on Gilead Sciences

updating the company's November HIV trends. In the report, JP Morgan writes, "November monthly Rx's were released by IMS this morning, and we are updating our comprehensive and proprietary analysis of HIV market trends Monthly Rx trends for the first two months of 4Q are trending below expectations, showing +0.5% q/q volume growth for Gilead products. The consensus estimate is 2.9% q/q growth (JPMe: +4.3% q/q). In contrast, weekly Rx's through the first 9 weeks of 4Q11 indicate +3.7% q/q growth. Total HIV market Rx grew flat q/q and 6% y/y in November, compared with the 3-mo moving average of 1% q/q and 6% y/y. We believe updated DHHS HIV Treatment Guidelines with respect to CD4 count at initiation should sustain y/y market growth in the high-single digits. Indeed, Gilead indicated on its 1Q call that median CD4 cell count at the initiation of therapy was 318 cells/mm3 (

) and 294 cells/mm3 (

), a dramatic uptick from 280-290 cells/mm3 in 2009." JP Morgan maintains its Overweight rating and $55 price target on Gilead Sciences, which closed yesterday at $38.59.