Oppenheimer Lowers MU Estimates, Shares Still Rise

Micron Technology

reported FQ4, and guided FQ1, colored by negative events, principally: Issues with the 50nm DRAM ramp at Inotera, and Freefall in spot pricing for DRAM. In light of 2H sluggishness in PC note/netbook units, MU guided DRAM ASPs in FQ1 down high-teens seq, in line with Oppenheimer's model, but off a lower base in FQ4. Therefore, Oppenheimer is lowering its FY11/FY12 ests to $1.37/$1.26. However, MU's newly minted, 10-yr cross-licensing agreement with Samsung offsets the model by ~$0.22/share. Without this, FY11 estimates would have been ~$1.15. Trading essentially at book, MU is fully discounting negative trends governing its core DRAM business, but the problem is catalysts are few/far between. Oppenheimer has a Perform rating on MU with a $9 PT MU is trading 5% higher at $7.47