Wunderlich Securities Raises Aspen Insurance Forecast And Book Value Estimate

The stupendous sell-off panic experienced by Aspen Insurance Holdings

shares resulted in a 10% decline in share price and $200 million loss in market value, Wunderlich Securities reports. “We believe the basis for this reaction was AHL's 3Q10 disclosure of a $6.0 million, or $0.07 per share, reserve development for one large claim,” Wunderlich Securities writes. “Putting the disclosure in perspective, AHL had claims reserves as of September 30, 2010 of almost $3.7 billion. The 3Q10 results were also impacted by $0.74 per share in catastrophic losses. We believe the catastrophe losses were disappointing, but also part of doing business. We believe the stock reaction is overdone. We reiterate our Buy rating and $37 price target on AHL shares.” Wunderlich Securities added that it is revising its 2010 forecast to reflect the lower-than-expected 3Q results. Wunderlich Securities is also raising its book value estimate to $41.92 for 2011 from $41.61. Aspen Insurance currently trades at $28.25.