Donald Trump is creating new headaches for Chinese solar panel makers, just as a slow death seems to be unfolding for new U.S. listings by Chinese companies. We see a shared narrative here. Whether dealing with quiet new policies from the Trump administration or facing intense scrutiny from Wall Street regulators, China Inc. is being forced to adapt. In both areas, Chinese businesses are discovering that flying under the radar and navigating the shifting sands of political and regulatory agendas is the safest way forward.

The solar front has been heating up lately under the Trump administration, which has reportedly tweaked U.S. policies to cut off subsidies for China-linked solar panels, even if they're manufactured in the U.S. These rules dictate that Chinese companies can't own more than 25% of these U.S. plants. This has led a growing number of solar installers to start shunning U.S.-based Chinese factories operated by names like JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS), Trina (688599.SH), and Longi (601012.SH).

In what looks like a direct response, JinkoSolar announced last week it's selling 75% of its U.S. subsidiary to a private equity company, though it will retain the remaining 25%. We think this is a highly interesting move. Some fear-oriented Chinese manufacturers might be tempted to jump ship, give up completely, and say they're done with the U.S. We'll skip past the legality of what Trump is doing, as it's almost certain to be challenged in the U.S. courts. But keeping a stake in the ground while waiting and seeing is probably the wisest path for these businesses. It's questionable what value is truly getting added in the U.S., considering a big chunk of the components for these panels are actually made in China at the parent company. Still, profit margins are much better in the U.S.

After all, politics always change. We've seen these winds shifting over the past several years, and that's not going to change. Consider what was going on with cryptocurrency before Trump was elected: the Biden years were notable for a strong agenda against crypto miners, and the SEC was strictly anti-crypto. At the time, Chinese-backed crypto companies needed to be very careful to fly beneath the radar. Once the administration changed, that environment shifted completely because Trump is very pro-crypto.

The current solar policy is clearly agenda oriented. Companies need to be acutely aware of powerful trade lobbies looking to protect U.S. industry, such as those supporting First Solar (FSLR.US). There's a similar dynamic in the battery storage sector, where huge makers like Gotion (002074.SZ) are facing a concerted lobby in certain U.S. regions managed by anti-China politicians. We believe it's smarter for Chinese firms to take measured actions — like Jinko dropping the stake in its U.S. facility to 25% — that align with pending guidance without making radical changes.

Shifting gears, we're seeing the latest twist in the slow death of U.S. listings by Chinese companies. We've chronicled this story quite a lot, which has seen major listings come to a virtual standstill over the last year. However, the latest development is a flurry of small Chinese companies suddenly formally withdrawing their U.S. IPO applications. In the last month, four companies took that formal step, compared with just two for all the rest of the year. All of these listings were for $20 million or less.

This is somewhat unusual. Typically, most Chinese companies would just quietly abandon their applications without making this kind of formal declaration. This flurry feels like a coordinated response to pressure from both sides. On the U.S. side, neither the exchanges nor the SEC wants meme stocks or penny stocks that lack sufficient quality. U.S. regulators want to protect small retail investors who might open Robinhood at a coffee shop to try and make a quick buck. We've seen a lot of these stocks start off with a small gain and then just crash. There's suspicion that the companies themselves are involved in manipulation behind the scenes, rather than just the mom-and-pop GameStop or Reddit investor crowds.

China is also cracking down on these smaller IPOs. The Chinese securities regulator likely doesn't want poor-quality companies listing in the U.S. because it makes the country look bad. In truth, China would actually prefer higher-quality companies to list on overseas exchanges as an exercise in soft power. A quality business like Chagee (CHA.US) or Pop Mart (9992.HK) reflects much better on society overall, whereas a wave of low-quality equities is a face-losing exercise. We believe there's going to be a refinement — a sifting of the wheat from the chaff. While Hong Kong is emerging as a stronger alternative and picking up many companies that would have previously gone to the U.S., the U.S. market still has the greatest sway and cachet. For mid-sized to large Chinese companies with a true international presence and the ambition to keep expanding outside their home market, the U.S. is still where the global investors are. We'll likely still see serious Chinese companies listing in the U.S., but not as many as we've seen historically.