Update On Precious Metals

I wrote a blog post on Precious Metals in June 2025, outlining their recent performance and outlook.

You can find my June 2025 blog post on the Forex Analytix website.

In 2025, one of the most talked about asset classes has been Precious Metals, and rightly so.

In the Forex Analytix chatrooms and webinars, I've been talking about the PM upside potential for many months. I remember saying that Silver in the $20s will be a distant memory, and the same for Gold in the $2,000s.

There have been many reasons for the recent rise in precious metals, and some of these are the following:

• Strong Central Bank buying, with China leading the way.
• The shift from a rate hiking cycle to a rate cutting cycle.
• A fall in the USD – the DXY index fell from 110 in January 2025 to the low 96s.
• A rise in global geopolitical tensions, driving flows into safe haven assets.

For a while I had been talking about targets near $50 for Silver and $4,000 for Gold, and admittedly so were a great number of other market analysts & participants. With those targets being reached, I exited all my precious metals and miners longs, and I cautioned – again, in our chatrooms and webinars – against trying to chase the markets higher.

So, what happened next, and where do we stand now?

Gold peaked at $4,400 in October 2025 and corrected sharply lower. We are currently trading just below $4,000 and moving inside what looks like a bearish flag. If confirmed, this move could run to the 61.8 fib at $3,720 and perhaps even the 78.6 at $3,540.

Silver peaked just below $54.50 in October 2025 and also corrected sharply lower. We are currently trading below $48 and also inside a bearish structure. Targets for this are at $44.48 and the big confluence of supports at around $41.5.

It's becoming clear that sentiment & positioning had become hugely bullish for precious metals. Silver in particular broke its all-time highs above $50, and that surely brought in large numbers of new longs. Retail had not been participating in the general 2025 rally, and it's likely that they all rushed in FOMO, trying not to miss out on this "slam dunk" opportunity.

Unfortunately, when this happens, invariably such moves reverse in the short term. What we are seeing now is probably fast money and retail longs stopping out. There is also a good deal of "catching a falling knife" trades, with people thinking that metals have "dropped too far". This will likely exacerbate the move lower until we reach the target levels mentioned above.

Miners have also reversed from their highs, although their 2025 performance remains impressive.

The GDX ETF (Gold Senior Miners) has dropped from its 85 October highs to 69, and targets 62.4 and 55.38.

The SIL ETF (Silver Senior Miners) has fallen from its 80.72 highs to 63, and targets the low 50s.

The takeaway from the markets as I see them is quite straightforward. All the fundamentals for a continued rally in metals and miners are in place, but patience is needed. In my opinion, it's likely that we will start hitting the targets mentioned above, and I am going to start looking to scale into longs again.

The main risk to this scenario is a general risk-off move, particularly if markets get panicked into selling. If this happens, then all asset classes will likely get hit hard, precious metals included. We have seen this many times in the past, such as the 2008 crisis and the 2020 Covid sell-off: even safe haven assets like gold get sold in the broad selling panic. Patience and prudence are required, always with discipline and solid risk management.

Thank you for reading and trade safe.

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