2Q11 Gross Domestic Product (072911); An Annualized +1.3%; OMG, 1Q Written Down to +0.4%

The graphic shows that the during the first two years after the 1980s recession, the economy under Reagan expanded by almost 13%. If today's second quarter GDP report from Uncle Sam's Bureau of Economic Analysis shows growth at an annualized 1.5%, the economy during the first two post-recession years under Obama will have expanded by 5.3%, or barely 40% of the Reagan Era performance. The differential in the past four quarters has been even greater: 6.9% to 2.2%.

I say “has reportedly happened” about the current era's numbers because today's GDP report, in addition to revealing the government's advance estimate of how much the economy grew during the second quarter, will also revise reported growth figures going all the way back to 2003. That should be interesting. The pre-revision figures going all the way back to 1980 are here.

It could provide a measure of revenge for those who insist that the recession really began in December of 2007 if the numbers for the first two quarters of 2008, currently at -0.7% and +0.6%, respectively, both go negative. But as long as they don't go significantly negative, it will still be the case that a serious recession didn't begin until the third quarter, the first full quarter of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy, which actually began in late May or early June of 2008. It will also be interesting to see if the four quarters of POR Economy's deep recession end up even worse than they already are, or just slightly less awful (3Q08, -4.0%; 4Q08, -6.8%; 1Q09, -4.9%; 2Q09, -0.7%), or, conceivably, if the second quarter of 2009 might have snuck into positive territory (which would have stunning implications).

As to second-quarter predictions:

• Yesterday, the Associated Press's 9:32 a.m. report on unemployment claims carried a prediction of an annualized 1.7%.
• A couple of weeks ago, Goldman Sachs downgraded its second quarter prediction to an annualized 1.5%.
• A group of “IFR” economists thinks we'll see 2.3%, according to a video posted at Reuters.
• At the Washington Post, Neil Irwin writes that Bloomberg's consensus is 1.8%.

The report will appear here at 8:30 a.m.

8:35 a.m. — I have an email saying that the number is 1.3%. I don't see the announcement yet, but it may be my browser cache getting temperamental.

8:38 a.m. — Just opened a different browser program, and learned that the BEA server is overloaded.

8:41 p.m. — Ah, there it is (release; full text and tables), with a really, really big opening shock:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

Boy, talk about “unexpectedly.” The 2003-forward revision I mentioned above just trashed the first quarter. Before the release, I meant to write that today's report, if it disappointed, might have an impact on the direction of the debt-ceiling negotiations. They should, back in the direction of Cut, Cap, and Balance. They also give rumblin'-stumblin'-bumblin'-fumblin' John Boehner a chance for a new determined start. Don't blow it, John; this may be your last shot.

I'll have much more later after reviewing today's report and the comprehensive revision.

But for now, I can't resist some snark: This isn't anything a whole bunch of new tax increases can't cure. (/sarc)

9:25 a.m.: Additional info will be in a new post (or posts) which is/are in the works. New post: “Today's GDP Headline Should Be: Economy Has STILL Not Fully Recovered From Recession, No Matter How You Define It”