EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for June 28, 2011

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By ForexMansion.com

The EUR/USD started the week with a mixed sentiment and strong fluctuations as the outlook for the euro this week and for the coming period is pending the final verdict from the Greek parliament which will remain the predominant play factor over all other odds.

The euro attempted to consolidate some of the losses and tried to move higher, which is merely the mixed sentiment that the market is pressured by. Some see that the Greek parliament will pass the austerity package as they have no other choice, yet the majority sees the odds are both possible and an actual block on the package might push Greece to default within days as the funds stop flowing from the IMF and EU!

Some relief was seen from news reports suggesting the positive progress in negotiations with banks over the voluntary rollover of Greek debt, or actually reinvestment of maturing bonds into longer term securities with good terms that will satisfy lenders as well as rating agencies to avoid the default risk and contagion crisis that might indeed choke global financial markets.

The data on Tuesday will start from Germany at 06:00 GMT with the July Gfk Consumer Confidence survey as the index is expected to have dropped to 5.3 from 5.5. Also, the preliminary CPI for June is due on Tuesday and expected to rise by 0.2% on the month after holding steady in May and to remain at 2.3% on the year; while in harmonized terms to rise also 0.2% following 0.2% drop and on the year to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%.

From the United States Consumer Confidence for June is due at 14:00 GMT; the index is expected to rise to 61.5 from 60.8 in May.

Nevertheless, the focus of the day will be on Greece as the parliament started the three-day debate on the austerity package and the vote is likely sometime Wednesday, which was previously expected on Tuesday. Still comments from the government or parliament members will be closely watched and the volatility will return to the market and the pair is likely to fluctuate heavily.

Originally posted here

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