Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 23-27

Forex Pros – The U.S. dollar advanced to a three-week high against the yen last week before trimming gains after official data showed that Japan entered its third recession in a decade and Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he expects the central bank to maintain a flexible monetary policy.

USD/JPY hit 82.23 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.69 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 1.02% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 80.72, the low of May 17 and short-term resistance at 82.23, Thursday’s high.

Government data on Thursday showed that Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by an annualized 3.7% in the first quarter, following a 3% drop in the preceding quarter.

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged and held interest rates steady in a range of zero to 0.1% on Friday, as widely expected.

The yen was also pressured by speculation about the potential for yen-selling related to Japanese corporate acquisitions of overseas firms, including drug maker Takeda Pharmaceutical's deal to buy Swiss-based Nycomed for EUR9.6 billion.

The greenback trimmed gains after data on Thursday showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and an unexpected dip in existing home sales in April underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy for some time to come.

Looking ahead to the coming week, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus of attention, while Japan is to publish data on its trade balance and retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

The BoJ is to publish its monthly report, which outlines the data policymakers examined when making the latest interest rate decision.

The U.S. is to publish government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting. The minutes contain in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. Following the report, the bank’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is to speak. Japan is also to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

The U.S. is to publish revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.  The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Japan is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation as well as data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a slew of economic data, including government reports on personal income and spending and industry data on pending home sales, while the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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