27 April, Members Daily Market Analysis

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Our charting software has crashed, so I'll write today's market analysis (oi behave, my grammar isn't that bad, is it?).

Equities: S&P's led the indexes higher on the belief that the Fed will make few if any changes to policy in today's meeting. The primary bull trend has remained in place on the back of the continued expectation that, the cash created by the Fed since 08 will continue to find its way into the equity markets and not labour and plant (not until the economy is robust enough to permit this). You've heard me repeatedly say this and my opinion hasn't changed, however before I re-enter into a long position for S&P futures I want to see the very important technical level of 1341 the 76.4% fibonacci retracement from 07 highs to 09 lows taken and held, I'll use a filter of a 2% move and also a minimum of 3 daily closes above this level. Volume however is still weak and this does concern me but the bulls are in control. Dax 7281.5 was last Wednesday's high and this did a good job as support with 7291.5 the low, yesterdays bullish candle leaves marabuzo support at 7347, with overhead resistance at 7448 and 7467, more aggressive traders could buy dips, however I'm waiting for 1341 to hold in the S&P futures before I initiated any new index longs.

Forex: Currency traders are waiting for today's Fed meeting to end and then the release of the post meeting communique and Dr Bernanke's press conference, this shall be a very interesting and historic event as it's the first of its kind. As we said last week the USD rallying was nothing more than an oversold correction.

EURUSD: As I said yesterday I'm bullish of this cross short term while it continues to trade above 1.4520 horizontal support. Short term support at 1.4649 and overhead resistance at 1.4715 yesterdays high and then 1.4763.

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EURGBP: We got our close above 88.51 and 88.76-77, we are still long and now look for the swing high of this move 89.45 to be tested. Support at 88.81 and 88.18. Obviously I'm still bullish this cross.

GBPUSD: UK GDP data released today, marabuzo support held yesterday at 1.6466 and this keeps the bulls in control, however the series of shooting star and spinning top candles, informs us that the market is caution ahead of GDP data. Support again at 1.6466 and overhead resistance at 1.6521 and 1.6600.

AUDUSD: This trade is working out very well and we are now deeply in the money and protected from daily noise, I'm waiting for S&P futures to hold 1341 before adding to this position. We are still 1 unit long from 1.0310.

Crude: Libya's high quality crude is still not readily available and no country can step in and take up the production slack. While the situation in Libya remains confusing, I'm still bullish of crude with a target of 113.70 for our long play. Same stop parameters as yesterday still apply. DOE releases its Crude inventoires later today, API figures released yesterday were bearish and yet crude prices held up, this for me is a bullish sign.

Gold: Dips are being bought as we suggested last week, with the yellow stuff printing a low of 1492 and then rallying overnight to 1510.5, overhead resistance is at the recent high of 1519.2, short term support at 1506.4 and longer term trend support at 1477. I remain bullish.

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